Monday 20 August 2012

6:30 Warwick (21st August) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f on good to soft ground.

Seven runners, five raced with two debutantes from leading stables.

This speed course suits juveniles with experience. Three form horses set the standard and over shadow those making their debut.

Fletcher Christian has been given a over a month's break after five creditable efforts. John Gallagher's gelding is a difficult horse to pin down regarding his exact level of ability but he has certainly shown enough pace to win an average maiden. This bay is out of a very talented mare, who was trained by Nerys Dutfield, winning at Listed and Group 3 class over sprint distances. Fletcher Christian is a good-looking juvenile who has shown his best form on softer ground although far from inconvenienced by firmer conditions. This drop back to the minimum trip is ideal and if fit should have most of these on the back foot with ample pace to burn. He is the type of performer to touch short odds in-running and perhaps the class to just about hold on for a win.

Tanghan was second string for Richard Fahey's stable when runner-up to the talented Flyman at York over the minimum trip. This colt by Invincible Spirit cost 50,000euros and owned by Mrs H Steel who has the knack of finding talented two-year-olds. This February foal was quoted as being temperamental but a good-looking sort. After dwelling at the start, he looked to have a remote chance but ran on with real determination. On the face of it, that was a superb effort. It is intriguing to consider why this bay colt has been absent from racing for such a long period which suggests there have been issues. Nolan keeps the ride. If progressing from that first start, he must take the beating. 

David Brown has proven to be a master training of two-year-olds and capable of sending out  debut winners. I'm pretty sure that was the plan for John Fretwell's filly because I have rarely seen a juvenile entered to run so many times only to be withdrawn on the day. To be fair that may have been due to the prevailing soft ground at the time. However, there was little doubt this daughter of Street Boss was fit and ready when making  her debut at Windsor. Richard Mullen was clearly under instructions to win because he didn't stop for trying all the way to the line. The fact that Hoyam - who was narrowly defeated in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) - was a 1-5 odds-on shot set the bar pretty high. Bell's juvenile won in stylish fashion. In truth that was Clean Blow's running. She was quite a short price to win when running at Wolverhampton but a wide draw and fair opposition made for a disappointing fourth. The fifth has since won a race. Clean Blow isn't devoid of ability but I would favour others because she looks to have her work cut out with a couple of these.

The other form horses will need to sprout wings to beat the favourites.

The betting is the best guide to the unraced juveniles trained by William Haggis & Ralph Beckett respectively.

Cross My Heart is a half-sister to the talented Stepper Point and cost 45,000gns as a yearling. William Haggis can win with his debutantes and has a few potential stars in his team this season. However, this daughter of  Sakhee's Secret will need to be something beyond the norm to beat these experienced juveniles. If priced 13/2 & less it would bring further confidence but whatever the price I would take a watching brief.

Speed Date hails from Ralph Beckett's stable. Their juveniles can be rather hit and miss on debut but it should be remembered they can win at speculative odds. It never pays to discount their debutantes. However, it would take a sterling effort to lower the colours of those more proven.

Conclusion: On form I wouldn't look beyond Tanghan and Fletcher Christian who set a fair standard. There is a slight concern both have been away from the course for some period. The former was said to be temperamental, which hardly inspires confidence although finishing runner-up to the stable's first string at York was a supreme effort. In truth, he may not need to improve on that initial start but you wouldn't want to bet at short odds if there are issues. Nolan keeps the ride and may have been partnering this horse on the gallops. I would be careful backing at short odds but respect his chances. Fletcher Christian is a fair sort and perhaps better than we have seen so far. Gallagher often slips under the radar but this strong colt has ample speed and if blasting from the stalls may have many of these wondering which way he went. His form is not the easiest to assess but there has been promise in many races over this minimum trip on ground with a bit of give. At decent odds there must be a fair chance of laying your bet at shorter odds in-running. This could be a bet to nothing and then you just cross your fingers and hope for the win. Clean Blow has an element of ability but may need the principles to disappoint to prove victorious. The debutantes may prove talents in time. However, this is a speed course and the slightest signs of inexperience will see this pair toiling off the pace. Best watched even if fancied in the betting.