Monday 27 August 2012

4:50 Southwell (28th August) Free Racing Tips

A Maiden Stakes over 6f on standard going.

Eight juveniles take part - all raced - colts, two geldings & a couple of fillies. A fascinating race with a number of two-year-olds showing enough ability to win a race of this nature.

Lyric Piece is a chestnut daughter of Dutch Art. This home bred for Cheveley Park Stud is a progressive type out of a talented mare who was placed at two but came into her own when stepping up in distance at three: winning at Listed & Group 3 class. Sir Mark Prescott trained the dam so knows the family. This February foal has ability but her downfall on those first two starts was due to being outpaced in the early stages, which made her looked rather slothenly. There is little doubt she progressed from that initial start when chasing home clear winner Bottle Blonde. The betting suggested a big run was expected that day so I can imagine connections thought she would show more pace. That looked fair form and Lyric Piece is capable of winning and could - in time - be a talented three-year-old. This slower surface is likely to suit but I would still have concerns this filly will struggle for pace in the early stages. However, I would expect her to run on with vigour. I would imagine bigger odds could be achieved betting in running. A live chance, although she may not enjoy the kick-back and if finding herself too far off the pace may have an uphill climb. Ideally 7f/1m would be more suiting but her trainer must feel this is a race she can go close.

Saeed Bin Suroor has an exception 50% win rate with his juveniles at this course over the last five years. Muharrib cost 115,000gns as a yearling and son of Oasis Dream. He was relatively fancied for a poor Redcar maiden but was never a factor. Only time will tell whether that was his true running although much more will be needed today. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a bold show. If weak in the market, best watched.  

Mark Johnston's two-year-olds can be difficult to assess at times but Double Your Money probably run into a couple of talented horses at Nottingham when finishing fifth of eleven. This son of Shamardal is a half-brother to Bikini Babe. The mare was a Listed winner in France at two and a Group class performer at three. The Spence horses are usually given a considerate introduction so there could be ample improvement to come. More is needed today but he could go well especially if strongly backed.

Look On By comes from a a breeding line Ed McMahon knows particularly well, training for  S L Edwards. The stable have been in flying form with their juveniles, with a number winning on debut. There was late money for this gelding when he ran over 5f at this course. He was completely outpaced but made sterling headway in the closing stages giving the impression he would have won with another half furlong. That was probably no more than an average race but there could be improvement over this extra furlong. The stable have a good strike rate with their fancied juveniles on their second start and with the stable having a purple patch it makes this runner worthy of note.

One of two fillies in the line up, Marmot Bay has claims. This daughter of Kodiac was a big price when running over 7f on debut at Kempton but I was quite struck by her physically stature. This bay is a good-looking juvenile and far from disgraced when showing good pace until tiring in the closing stages. This drop back in distance should not be a problem as she is bred to be a sprinter. Jamie Osborne must have been pleased with that introduction and he does well at this course. It is slightly surprising to see connections have her entered for a couple of Claiming races at the end of the month which could be viewed as a negative although they may be focused on simply winning a race. I would keep the faith but the betting will be the best judge. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect this filly to be placed and have a fighting chance of a win. 

Marhaba Malayeen is a tricky juvenile to assess although narrowly denied at Musselburgh. This colt was quite an expensive yearling purchase at 62,000gns but the application of the blinkers suggests Karl Ryan feels he isn't doing his best. He has run a number of times on soft ground and could be better suited by this all-weather surface. A tough horse to assess and best watched.

Dumbarton Rock shown no ability on debut. However, he would have strong win and place claims if substantially backed. 

Exzachary is best watched. 

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess with a number of progressive horses primed for a big run today. The betting will be the best guide to most. Double Your Money, Look On By & Marmot Bay all have sound each way claims if priced 13/2 & less. I would prefer the latter pair. I was impressed by the look of Marmot Bay and I would be confident she will be placed if strong in the market. Jamie Osborne does well at this course with juveniles on their second start. Muharrib need to improve to have any hope. He is another who could go well if well supported but a difficult one to assess. Lyric Piece sets the standard. If this was over 7f I would give her the edge. However, this 6f trip could be a bugbear for her supporters and I would be tempted to bet in-running. I'm pretty sure bigger odds will be available if struggling for pace. Perhaps these first two efforts have blown away the cobwebs and she will sit handy? I can see her making a late charge and most likely the horse to beat. If touching big odds mid race I would be tempted to chance my arm.