Thursday 5 July 2012

7:00 Beverley (6th July) Free Horse Racing Tips


Aunte Bessie's Yorkshire Pudding Novice Stakes over 5f on good ground.

Liber is a typical sprinter from Sir Mark Prescott. With each race this son of Ishiguru has progressed and although seventh in the Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) at Royal Ascot, he lost little in defeat,  just over one length behind Hototo. No stranger to pattern class, this bay colt ran a superb race at Epsom when third in the Woodcote, collared in the closing stages over that extra furlong. The advantage Libre holds over his opposition - beyond probably clear talent - is an abundance of pace. Luke Morris is likely to blast his mount from the stalls and within strides could have these struggling. Strong claims.

One juvenile which may cling to Liber's tail is Mary's Daughter. Richard Fahey's charge was outclassed at Royal Ascot when competing in the Albany Stakes (Group 3). However,  this filly by Royal Applause didn't lack for speed winning at Leicester over the minimum trip. A 50/1 shot she may have been, but that was a fair performance. A number of those behind have since franked the form. This 40,000gns yearling may bustle-up the favourite for a while but doesn't look to be in the same class.

On form Shrimpton has to improve a few lengths to reverse the form with Mary's Daughter. I quite like this filly. However, you can almost guarantee Channon's representative will be outpaced by those with pace. Ideally 6f would suit, but the only chance this February foal has is if the leaders go a stride too fast and tire. As I stated, when she run at Windsor, I wouldn't lay this filly because she may look a hopeless case at halfway but could clamber home in the closing stages. If touching a huge prices in-running I would be tempted to have a few quid because she will run on with a flourish but whether able to catch the leaders only time will tell.

The Sixties is the other representative for Mick Channon, and has a similar profile to Shrimpton. After running over more testing trips (6/7f) this drop back to the minimum distance seems a strange idea. I cannot help but imagine this gelding of Sixties Icon will be hopelessly outpaced. If available at relatively short odds - a horse to lay.

I'm a big fan of Derek Shaw. He is a knowledgeable trainer who certainly makes the most of his horse's talents. Borough Boy was unfancied on debut at Wolverhampton over 6f. To be fair this son of Jeremy showed little ability finishing last of seven. This breeze-up purchase cost £35,000 at Doncaster after failing to make a bid at Goffs (Kempton). A good-looking colt, he showed good pace, if not a little too keen, then tired in the closing stages. Owner, Brian Johnson, has one fair juvenile in Top Boy, who is capable of winning a race, but disappointed at Royal Ascot. On balance, it would seem a tall order for this youngster to win against talented opponents. There could be improvement and he may show ability. One to watch.

Perhaps one of the most interesting juveniles is Bryan Smart's debutante, Different. This chestnut filly is a home bred from the Denniff family, a breeding line which has yielded some talented two-year-olds. Half-sister to Mary Read, half-brother to Jack Rackham & Exceedance to name a few. It is encouraging that Smart has taken this step to race at Stakes level. He has had such winners before. However, this is conflicting in the sense that although that gives hope - to win against such experienced talents makes for a very stiff task. A tardy start would be a disaster. Also, few trainers are willing to give their debutantes a tough race and it would take an outstanding performance to lower the colours of these primed to blitz. I would have to take a watching brief.

Conclusion: I can't get away from the merit of Liber who is determined, experienced & fast.  Luke Morris will not be looking over his shoulder to see if the opposition are toiling in his wake, both he and horse will have their head down in catch-me-if-you-can style. The chances are they won't. Mary's Daughter is probably one of few with pace to burn but she will most probably struggle to keep tabs on the favourite. The others have their work cut out. Shrimpton will be outpaced. She shouldn't be laid. If touching huge odds in-running may even be worth a few quid - because she could finish with relish. If the leaders go a stride too quick she could rattle by tiring finishers. That's the gamble. The Sixties is likely to be outpaced full stop. Borough Boy may go well at a huge price but needs a leap of faith. On balance best watched. Different isn't without hope for Bryan Smart but over the minimum trip would need to be pretty smart and I would have to take a watching brief.