Wednesday 11 July 2012

2:10 Yarmouth (11th July) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f 43y on soft ground.

Uncomplicated, the only filly in this race, has been placed on all three starts. Jim Boyle is a talented trainer and this daughter of Bahamian Bounty has faced some stiff opposition beaten by Rhamnus, Ishi Honest & Threes Grand. With proven form and racing on soft ground she ticks a couple of boxes. On balance, this bay filly has just about enough ability to win a race at this grade but could be prone to an improving horse or talented debutante. A fair each way bet if prices allow.

Mick Channon's two-year-olds have been in good form all season and he has sung the praises of Sixties Icon, a versatile sire whose juveniles can run at any distance. The Sixties is quite strongly fancied in the betting and highly tried after attempting the Chesham Stakes (Listed) at Royal Ascot. It seems a rather strange move to drop back to the minimum trip after running at 7f last twice. It is usually the case, horses struggle with such a change in pace and I would have fears this gelding will be outpaced. Money talks with this stable and if starting favourite it could well be the case that trainer knows best. However, I would rather take a watching brief because this may be a rude awakening.

Medicoe is one of the more interesting horses. Sir Mark Prescott's gelding was fancied to run a big race at Ripon over 6f. However, a wide draw didn't help his chances and he was outpaced and showed little ability, beaten many lengths by the capable Bircham. Starting a well backed 11/4 shot suggests the stable had high hopes of a promising effort but you often get the good, bad and ugly on debut. In truth, that was a pretty ordinary performance but horses can often be excused a disappointing first start. The betting is key to this horse today. If priced 13/2 & less, expect a big run. Probably the bet in this race if fitting this criteria. If a marked drifter near the off it would be a negative.   

Of the others The Manx Missile looks held by Uncomplicated on their Sandown form.

Oscars Journey is the first two-year-old to race for John Jenkins this season. This gelding is a son of Dubai Destination out of a decent Listed-winning mare, who had a long and very lucrative career. This home bred could well progress with racing. Jenkin's two-year-olds do not feature the best strike rate on debut and generally need the run. Worth noting for the future.

Linda Stubbs is a talented trainer and their juveniles are always worthy of respect. Southern Sapphire was a relatively cheap breeze-up purchase costing £8,000. The stable can win on debut but statistically - as with most juveniles - have a greater chance of success on their second start. It is interesting they have travelled to Yarmouth because it is a course they have found success. Additionally, it is good to see Eaves in the saddle. I can see this gelding running well.

Conclusion: Uncomplicated should enjoy this drop in class. She is racing against the boys but a determined sort. The distance, ground and ability all indicate a big run. If touching an each way price, worth of a bet. The main opposition in the betting have something to prove. The Sixties is a strange one. I would have to have concerns about this drop to the minimum trip. It may be the making of him but after running at 7f this will seem all the faster and could easily be outpaced in the early stages, if not the race. I would have to take a watching brief. Medicoe gives conflicting signals. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a much-improved performance. If strongly fancied, the horse to beat. The betting is the key! Quite interested in Southern Sapphire. Stubbs doesn't venture to Yarmouth that often and especially considering it is the only ride for Tom Eaves. The stable can win of debut and if fancied could go well. 

HCE Mentions:

5:00 Lingfield - Our Sweet Art (fair each way bet if 13/2 & less sp)