Friday 4 May 2012

6:25 Doncaster (5th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Stakes over 5f on good to soft ground. A field of twelve juveniles featuring colts and two fillies. A handful of youngsters with form, a few showing promise on debut.

Dust Whirl was ready to run from the start of the season being entered for the Brocklesby but not taking that engagement. This March foal by Bahamian Bounty is a compact, good-looking bay colt who showed pace when racing on debut at Newbury on soft ground. That race has a reputation for quality juveniles and although no two-year-olds have run since that event, a number of trainers hold their runners in some regard. David Barker is a calculating owner who knows a decent horse; his two-year-olds usually attain a winning standard and I would be very surprised if Dust Whirl doesn't prove victorious this season. He showed good pace on debut and probably struggled to get home due to the testing ground. It is encouraging that this £42,000 yearling has been entered to run in a Stakes race and Lily Agnes. Even with no proven form to judge this horse he is likely to run a big race and show a bold front-running display.

Another good-looking colt is Regal Dan. This son of Dark Angel is not the biggest but he looked well in himself, quite powerful, an energetic type. He cost 36,000gns, running at Windsor on debut behind Baddilini. The form of that race is fair without being anything special but there was a lot to like about this bay colt. To some extent he could be better than that initial effort simply because he was keen over the first few furlong, which may have taken the edge off his finishing burst. It is interesting that Hills has him entered for the Lily Agnes. He probably thought this would be an easier target. Starting at odds of 4/1 on debut suggests connections had high hopes of a big run. It should be noted this is Michael Hills only ride on the card. As I have said before, he isn't a jockey who wastes his time and that point alone is significant. A half-brother to Star Rover and Jamesway, this is a speedy family. From a high draw - one off the rails - he could well set a healthy pace and have many of these in trouble from the start.

If Regal Dan is held in high regard for this race, then Mick Channon's Ouzinkie must hold similar claims. This son of Kodiac cost 20,000gns and had no luck on debut. He was slow into his stride and from that point was always chasings the leader's shadows. However, he travelled with real purpose mid-race, and after being short of room, ran on with a gritty determination. On balance, you would have to consider he holds Regal Dan and could well improve a good deal for the experience. It is worth noting that Regal Dan may have compromised his chances being keen. The form of that race is fair and Channon's two-year-olds feature good win and place rate when fancied on their second start. One of the major contenders.

Of the others to have raced Rod Millman's Yes Two showed promise on debut behind Dreamy Ciara. In truth that was probably no more than average form. This bay colt is a good, strong sort but needs to improve to figure hear. Millman's two-year-olds have the knack of running big races on their second start and he may sneak a place at speculative odds. 

Although Top Boy was clueless on debut, Derek Shaw's two-year-old is worth a second chance. A 42,000gns purchase, he is a handsome son of Exceed And Excel. At fantastic odds he may be worth a few quid as improvement should be seen.

The betting is the best guide to the debutantes. Kevin Ryan has few horses win priced over 7/1. Unassailable would need to be in this betting guide to figure. Probably best watched unless substantial supported. 

Tom Dascombe fields one of two fillies and This Is Nice cost £32,000 as a yearling. The stable have not managed to find a winning two-year-old this season from a large number of runners, which must be annoying for this professional trainer. However, it is worth noting than a many of their juveniles have been unfancied on debut. Money is the key to this stable. If priced 7/1 & less, they are worth noting. This chestnut filly has been entered for a Stakes race which give encouragement.

Bispham Green hails from a stable which feature fair win and place claims on debut but it may be a negative that Nolan is in the saddle. If weak in the betting, best watched.

*Bairam was quoted by Brian Meehan as needing the run.

Conclusion: Dust Whirl, Ouzinkie & Regal Dan have experience onside and good-looking juveniles. Dust Whirl has a few flashy engagements and even though it is impossible to gage the form I would be surprised if this colt didn't have a fair level of ability. He has speed to burn and on this better ground is likely to make a bold show. A wide draw isn't ideal but he should be wise enough to spring from the stalls. The horse to beat. Ouzinkie looks to hold Regal Dan on their Windsor form. Both ran well and look capable of winning this term if not needing to improve a little. Regal Dan is a good-looking colt. He has the stature of a sprinter and well developed - a bundle of energy. It is encouraging to see he has been entered for the Lily Agnes and is the only ride for Michael Hills on the card. That is a significant pointer. It may be unwise to consider Ouzinkie holds the aces and this son of Dark Angel could be a sound each way bet. Ouzinkie is worthy of respect and another with place claims. The betting will be key to the debutantes but they will need to be pretty smart to win against experience form horses. Top Boy may look hopeless but at astronomical odds may show improvement on this second start. A fascinating race.