Sunday 13 May 2012

5:40 Windsor (14th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Fillies' Stake over 5f 10y on soft ground.

This race has been a starting point for some talented two-year-old fillies.

Two horses have shown form against a field of debutantes from talented trainers.

Bryn Palling has done well with juveniles owned by Christopher Mason, this combination training the mare Edge Of Light who won on debut and highly tried in Group class, attaining an official rating of 99. This bay filly by Piccolo made her debut in a hot Newbury maiden where the the fourth, fifth & seventh have franked the form winning on their next start. Edged Out struggled to go the pace in the early stages and looked to be dropping out of contention but rallied in the final furlong, closing on the leaders to finish sixth. It will be interesting to see if this filly is similarly outpaced today or whether that was simply due to inexperience. It is encouraging that Palling raced this youngster at Newbury and that she was all set to run in a conditions stakes race at Salisbury but withdrawn after unseating her rider and running loose at the start. That initial experience could be an advantage against the debutantes. It wouldn't be a surprise to see her go well.

Rio's Pearl, a bay filly by Captain Rio, made her debut in the conditions stakes race at Salisbury, where Edged Out misbehaved. This juvenile is owned by Pearl Bloodstock Ltd for £50,000. This canny outfit are no stranger to talented two-year-olds and it was a bold move to challenge previous winners. It was always going to be a tough task but to this filly's credit she wasn't disgraced in third place. It is difficult to assess the merit of that race with the odds-on favourite finishing lame. The winner, Judy In Disguise, made it two out of two wins and Bill Turner has been quoted as saying she could be smart. Whether this is the case only time will tell. At one point this strong filly was entered to run at plating class, but she is clearly on a different level to that. The fourth and fifth (Dreamy Ciara & Effie B) have ability but also limitation. However, there is nothing to say the first two are not talented juveniles, which in turn would increase the hopes of Rio's Pearl. The stable feature fair win and place claims with fancied runners on their second start.

Of the debutantes Richard Hannon is represented by a home bred Pivotal filly called Hairy Rocket. It is always difficult to assess their juveniles on debut but in general the betting is a good guide to their chances - the shorter the price the bigger the run. A stable representative commented that the gallops have been so wet that they have to be patient and for that reason their debutantes are likely to improve a good deal for the run. The mare was listed placed and a fair type. 

Richard Hughes takes the ride on Miss Diva a daughter of Acclamation who cost  23,000gns at the yearling sales. Hughes was booked to ride this juvenile at the first declaration stage, so it may be the more significant of the two but it is never easy to judge first and second string with this yard. Hannon's representative simply commented: ''We run a couple of nice two-year-olds''. 

All I can say is that Hairy Rocket has been entered for a stakes race, which could be a sign of encouragement and I would favour her of the two. 

Paul Cole said he feels his two-year-olds will lead the way this season although they have failed to make a great impact so far. Faluka is a grey-roan filly by Iffraaj purchased by Oliver Cole for 55,000gns at the yearling sales. The mare was a fair sort but needed a test of stamina. It could be the case a stiffer trip will be needed in time. Cole said: ''Faluka who is quite speedy may run on Monday at Windsor''. The stable can go well with their debuatntes but have few winners priced over 8/1. In recent years Silverheels and Winnie Dixie won on debut at this course and I have a feeling this track is now chosen for their more selective types. If fancied in the betting, this April foal could be one for the short list.

Brian Meehan is a supreme talent with two-year-olds, especially fillies and Fantacise could well make a name for herself this season. This daughter of Pivotal, a chestnut filly, cost 70,000gns. The mare - My First Romance - is particularly noteworthy because of her talented progeny. The stable said: ''It is easy to anticipate ability as she is half-sister to ten previous runners, all winners. Two of them, Romantic Liason and Romantic Myth, won the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, the former under the care of Brian. The ground is sure to be on the soft side, but Pivotal's sons and daughters generally cope with it. Optimism on this debut, but as usual it is expected that she will learn from the experience''. Many form students consider that Meehan's juveniles struggle to win on debut. However, the better horses often run big races. A difficult horse to assess but if following in the footstep of her siblings she will be winning this season.

Of the others, Poetic Verse hails from Rod Millman's stable, who I have a lot of time for. They have already hit a winning note with Yes Two, who battled to victory on his second start. This chestnut filly of Byron was a cheap yearling purchase at £1,000. The stable feature a poor strike rate with their juveniles on debut and best watched.

A similar comment can made for Harley's Rocket trained by Brendan Powell. This home bred is out of a poor twice-raced mare. The stable rarely win on debut and generally their two-year-olds are limited. 

Conclusion: Potentially a fair race and Edged Out & Rio's Pearl certainly come here deserving credit. The former is trained by Bryn Palling from a family he knows well. It would be no surprise to find connections rate this filly. The form of that Newbury debut looks strong and if she was simply outpaced because of inexperience rather than lacking early speed, she could prove a tough nut to crack. I can see her going well. Rio's Pearl was given a difficult task racing at Stakes level on debut. To beat previous winners is worthy of note. The winner and second are not the easiest to assess but time may tell that was a good race. At the very least she clearly has enough ability to win an average race. The debutantes have it all to prove. In many respects I would always favour form horses because they have shown ability, fitness and invaluable experience. That factor is often compounded over 5f. It is best to let debutantes prove they have ability - most will falter. However, each horse deserves to be judged on its own merits and a few from fashionable stables who know their horses. Hannon's pair are difficult to assess. I would favour Hairy Rocket but this is a stable which is often hard to be dogmatic. I would take a watching brief. Paul Cole is a very good judge and if he says their two-year-olds are going to be the winning machines this year I would concur. Faluka cost a pretty penny and it is encouraging that Cole has sent a number of his better juveniles to race at Windsor in recent years. If priced 8/1 & less this youngster has fair win and place claims. Fantacise is clearly bred to be a talent and a horse to follow this season. The stable can win on debut but often improve for the experience. An intriguing race. I would side with proven form but a watching brief.