Wednesday 23 May 2012

3:20 Southwell (23rd May) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f. Good prize money for this venue. A selection of form horses, three debutantes. The majority of the field consist of colts.

Polski Max will take a lot of beating here. Richard Fahey's two-year-old has been made favourite on both starts to date. This son of Kyllachy finished third to the talented Storm Moon at Musselburgh and then put down a brave challenge to Lastchancelucas at Pontefract. In truth, this bay colt has been beaten by talented juveniles. The former will be fancied at Royal Ascot, while the later won a Novice Stakes at York. By all accounts this should be a drop in class and he will be unlucky to find a horse of that calibre today. This 6f shouldn't pose a problem. The fibre sand surface can be a problem to some juveniles but he seems to cope with varied conditions. The horse to beat.

Brian Ellison makes great use of Southwell whereas many trainers shy away this surface. This talented trainer knows his horses. Secret Destination is a big filly who will make a number of these colts look quite small. This daughter of Dubai Destination has breeding to suggest a test of stamina will be to her liking and she could be a fair juvenile. She showed little ability when struggling in the mud on debut at Beverley. There was money for her on that occasion but showed little promise. However, whether this filly has ability or not rests upon her last effort at Southwell over the minimum trip. That may have only been a four-horse race but time may tell it was a strong contest. The third, Woodland Mill, had won on debut and recently ran well at the finish in a Listed race a York. The question to consider is whether Woodland Mill ran her race at Southwell. In many ways it would seem a realistic conclusion she failed. I must admit she didn't look at home on the surface although it is surprising how many times these form lines stand up. If the form of Secret Destination's second is true, then she is an each way steal. It is worth noting that the fourth horse, Hellolini, ran well on her second start at Redcar after looking the winner, losing by a length. Was she flattered behind Storm Moon? It isn't beyond the realms that race form is in fact reality. An interesting horse.

Of the other form horses, Marchwood is a good-looking colt with three creditable runs under his belt. He is a determined juvenile trained by Stan Moore. This extra furlong shouldn't be a problem but he just doesn't look to be at the same level as Polski Max.

Rydale Valley is a fair-looking son of Three Valleys. He ran with credit on debut at this course but was thrashed by Mosstang. He could well improve for that initial experience and stepping up in distance but I would have to take a watching brief.

Of the debutantes, Kalicamix represents Paul Cole. This son of Bahamian Bounty was meant to run at York but withdrawn. Cole has been frustrated by the soft ground conditions and has said his horses have been running much better at home and winners will come with the  better ground. Kalicamix is working well and costing 30,000gns so no cheap purchase. The mare, Heather Mix, won on debut. The stable have a good strike rate at the course although the betting is the best guide. Very few of their two-year-old win when priced over 8/1. However, they can go well when fancied in the betting. It would take a very good juvenile to win this race on debut and I would have to watch this time round.

Wellingrove hails from Mark Johnston's stable. This son of Cape Cross cost 115,000gns at the yearling sales. I always find the stable debutantes tricky to assess - they are either easy winners or big disappointments. I would rather watch and learn.

Annie Besant is unlikely to win on debut, while Until It Sleeps looks outclassed.

Conclusion: This race looks out of two horses. Polski Max sets a good level of form and it will take a talent to beat him today. This is a prime opportunity to win. Secret Destination is a difficult horse to assess but it may be a mistake to simply consider she was flattered when beating Woodland Mill. I must admit at first I came to that conclusion but it is surprising how most horses - unless failing miserably - run to form. Woodland Mill ran a great race at Listed class, while Hellolini - beaten many lengths - ran a stormer at Redcar. Time may tell Ellison's filly is a cracking each way bet. Not the easiest to assess but not one to ignore or categorise as flattered. The debutantes are interesting but I would be surprised if they are good enough to win in what should be a gritty contest.