Sunday 27 May 2012

2:30 Leicester (28th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Stakes over 5f 218y on good to firm ground. Potentially a decent race with a selection of form horses, debutantes from fashionable stables, and one filly against a field of colts.

Artigiano, an American bred son of Distorted Humor, ran a great race on debut at York. This bay colt was relatively fancied on debut and shouldn't be long before tasting victory. He wasn't best suited by a wide draw and found himself at the rear of the field. However, Dettori gave this March foal time to find his feet, making up impressive ground in the final furlong. By all account that was a strong race with the first four juveniles some ten lengths clear of the fifth. The sixth horse, Bisham Green, had run creditably on debut and looks a fair line to measure this quartet. Mahmood Al Zarooni has shone for Godolphin and this colt must have strong claims although a short price.

Of the other form horses, the only filly in the field, Symboline, could well prove the biggest danger. This daughter of Royal Applause ran with promise on debut at Ascot over 5f. It may have been a small race with just five runners but that was a pretty competitive heat. This 30,000gns purchase wasn't that strongly fancied in the betting but I feel connections were more interested in allowing her to have a pleasing introduction rather than press for a win. The fourth, Someone's Darling, is capable of winning a small race although no world beater. However, this juvenile is clearly held in high regard by Channon. This good looker has been entered for a Stakes, Listed & Hilary Needler (Listed) race, which suggest there will be ample improvement today. Symboline has a tough test against the colts but the stable have been in cracking form and I would take it as a positive they take this route. A fair each way prospect although needs to improve on her debut effort to pressure Artigiano.

Scott Dixon is a trainer to note this season and he has his juveniles in great form with a winning two-year-old starting this Flat campaign. Pearl Noir is a good-looking colt. This bay colt is a strong son of Milk It Mick, a great buy at  £10,000. A wide draw didn't help his chance and being slightly short of room could well have made the difference between winning and losing at Beverley. He ran on with purpose suggesting this extra furlong would bring further improvement. That was probably no more than an average maiden. The third, Fraserburgh, has since run a great race over 6f although it may pay to tread careful with that form line because he may have progressed beyond that initial start. What can be assured is that Pearl Noir will improve for this extra furlong. I would suggest substantial improvement will be needed to press the leading lights but this February foal could be a progressive sort who may sneak a place.

Walter Wait hails from Andrew Balding's stable, which I always respect. This son of Dark Angel cost  £32,000 at the yearling sales. This bay colt travelled well on debut but faded in the closing stages. The first three drew clear but he certainly showed promise and there could be more to come. The betting is the best guide and if priced in single figures he has fair win and place claims. It is interesting to note the jockey booking of Richard Hughes who is seldom used but features impressive statistics for this yard. 

Forbidden Fruit didn't show a great deal on debut at Ascot over 5f on soft ground. However, that was a particularly strong maiden and Meehan's juvenile pulled so fiercely in the early part of the race he ruined his chance. This 50,000euro purchase could be a different horse if settling but needs to find ample improvement. This step up in distance will be a positive move and the stable feature a good strike rate at the course. It is encouraging to note that he had been entered to run in a Stakes race before his debut, which could well be a sign connections expect a fair juvenile in time. The betting is the best guide and if priced 7/1 & less he could go well. It wouldn't be a surprise to him backed.

Unless substantially backed, Composed is best watched.

The debutantes have a tall order to defeat those with experience. It would take a very talented youngster to prevail and unlikely.

Shooting Jacket cost $145,000 at the yearling sales. It can be difficult to assess Godolphin's first and second strings at time. However, Artigiano would seem to be favoured and this son of Hard Spun is best watched.

Haverstock cost 110,000gns. Mark Johnston debutantes are difficult to assess often falling into two categories: easy winners or poor losers. The stable feature a brilliant strike rate with their two-year-olds at Leicester. Best watched unless you like taking a chance.

Few trainers have such a wealth of juvenile talent as Jeremy Noseda. Intimidate, a son of Royal Applause, cost 88,000gns. The betting is the best guide to this ones chances. If priced 13/2 & less he has fair win and place claims. The stable have a superb strike rate at the course although it would take a talent to win this race at the first time of asking. 

Quiet Prayer and Gworn may have claims if strongly fancied in the betting although both are weak on the exchanges [Sunday, evening]. 

Conclusion: Many punters will look no further than Artigiano. He ran well on debut and the form looks strong. It will take a good horse to beat him although a short price. Symboline is an intriguing runner. The only filly against a field of colts would be viewed a negative by many. However, the Channon two-year-olds are in superb form and I would take it as a positive to race against the boys. This daughter of Royal Applause is a good-looking juvenile and I have a feeling connections were more interested in giving her a nice introduction than winning. She will be primed for a big run and could be a decent each way bet. I don't think Artigiano will be easy to beat but it never pays to be scared of one horse. Always let the opposition prove they have ability. Being entered for two Listed races must be taken as a clear indication that the stable feel she will be competing at pattern class soon. This could well be a stepping stone to Royal Ascot. The main danger. Of the others, Pearl Noir is a good, strong colt who will improve for 6f. The downside is that he may need to find ample improvement, which makes me consider he has place claims but a win may be a struggle. Forbidden Fruit looks to have little chance on form but is worth noting in the betting. There could be more to come. I feel connections hold this youngster in some regard. Walter Wait may have each way claims if backed to single figures but is unfancied at present on the exchanges.  The betting is the best guide and if priced 7/1 & less he could go well. The debutantes will need to be pretty special to win on their racecourse bow. It isn't impossible but unlikely. Mark Johnston has a great strike rate at the course but I would have to take a watching brief. I would stick with Artigiano and Symboline.