Monday 7 May 2012

2:15 Southwell (8th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes race over 5f.

Quite a restricted race with fair prize money - one horse with race experience.

Mosstang is an interesting juvenile. This bay colt, a son of Moss Vale, could be something of a bargain buy at 6,000euros, especially considering he is a good, strong two-year-old. The mare was limited but this chestnut looks a ready-made winner. Robert Mills is a trainer I have always respected and - like his late father, Terry - knows his horses. Mosstang was sent off a 25/1 shot on debut at Kempton, a race which has been franked a number of times. Finishing third was a fine effort and many expected him to build on that performance at Leicester. In testing conditions, he travelled well until halfway, then tired in an instant and was eased by Martin Dwyer who gave the impression the horse had lost his action. By the finishing line, he was tailed-off. Later, the stable said he had coughed after the race, which probably accounted for such a disappointment. That run is best forgotten and I would expect a much-improved performance today. The stable do not have many juveniles at this course but they generally go well on the all weather. Mosstang is unlikely to find a better chance and with experience on side the debutantes will need to be pretty talented to pose a challenge.

David Brown is a canny trainer and clearly Pearl Bloodstock Ltd know that too. I respect both and fact that New Pearl made such an encouraging display when winning in style at Newmarket on Saturday will have many of his supporters fired-up. Ace Pearl is an American bred two-year-old by Bernstein and a recent breeze-up purchase for £10,000. Clearly things haven't gone quite to plan in his formative years as his sales price has decreased since his yearling purchase. It should be pointed out he is a gelding, which does bring his behaviour into question. The betting will be the best guide. The stable are capable of sending out a debut winner but I would be careful and let the betting settle before jumping in to back this bay.

The Tim Easterby pair Ryedale Valley and Baraboy were cheap purchases and the stable feature such a poor strike rate with their debutantes that it doesn't inspire confidence. Unless substantially backed I would take a watching brief.

Scott Dixon is an intriguing trainer and someone to keep on the right side. His first two-year-old of the season,  Threes Grand, made a winning start to the campaign, which should give them a line. This son of Milk It Mick is a home bred but went through the sales ring and bought back for £10,000, which is often a ploy used by owners to make them legible for these restricted race types. Owner, Paul Dixon, isn't the sort of person to miss a good bet and if *Pearl Noir is substantially backed it would be worth following. The betting is the best guide.

Conclusion: Mosstang may have something to prove after a dismal performance at Leicester. However, he could well have a valid excuse with coughing after the race. He is a good, strong and bull of a horse who is likely to make many of these look out of place. The form of his debut at Kempton has been franked and a recent Stake race entry suggest connections have not lost heart. His experience should be a big advantage, at a course where it is often difficult to catch the leader. Mills will most likely tell Donohoe to set the pace and if he is ever going to win a race this will probably be the one. Ace Pearl is worth noting in the betting and juveniles owned by Pearl Bloodstock Ltd are usually backed if in a winning mood. The stable have a talented two-year-old to judge this youngster and if he goes off favourite it would be significant. The betting is equally important for the chances of Pearl Noir. The favourite of this race is most likely to win.