Thursday 17 May 2012

1:30 York (18th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

The Marygate Fillies' Stakes (Listed) over 5f on good ground.

The first pattern race of the two-year-old season - a race to savour.

Speed is the key at York and in many ways this race is about one horse - Bailey's Jubilee. Mark Johnston's filly, a daughter of Bahamian Bounty, isn't the biggest but she is certainly fast. She ran out an easy winner on debut, a race that has worked out well and then disposed of a small field at Newmarket. In truth her first run was probably the stronger. An odds-on shot she may be but this will be a test for this bay filly who is one day shy of her second birthday. What has impressed is her natural pace. On both starts Johnston's representative crushed the opposition without coming off the bridle. Her leg speed is something to behold and this faster ground will suit. I predict this youngster will take this race in style and instilled as favourite for the Queen Mary (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. 

There is one debutante in the field Ana Emaratiya, trained by Kevin Ryan. This bay filly cost £35,000 at the yearling sales. The mare, Vale Of Belvoir, was placed at Listed class for  Karl Burke at two. In truth this filly has a mountain to climb. It is worth noting that Ryan sent out Roxan to win the Hilary Needler 2006 Listed race on debut. That was some feat. The only hope is if this youngster is strongly fancied in the betting but in all honesty it would be an amazing performance to win and unlikely.

The stable field Somethingboutmary (promoted by HCE for Wildcard Racing Syndicate) who made a sparkling debut at Southwell in the capable hands of Amy Ryan. This daughter of Sleeping Indian is an early foal, although not the biggest. However, fillies come in all shapes and sizes with talent plus bravery as ample traits. After showing inexperience on debut, she ran on with real purpose and won going away. Her strength will be her finishing the race with spirit and if she can sit handy it will be a positive. I will be rooting for her. Best wishes to the syndicate on what will be a truly exciting day. 

Of the other form horses Dream Vale is worthy of respect after dealing a seven-length thrashing to her opposition at Catterick after showing next to nothing on debut at Beverley behind another of today's rivals Ingleby Royale. In fairness the Catterick race was a poor contest with the second being entered at plating class. However, an impressive winner should never be dismissed although much more will be needed here.

Woodland Mill looked a decent prospect when winning on the first day of the Flat season with Ceiling Kitty a running-on second. Fahey's juvenile looked a shadow of that performance on her second start at Southwell when pummelled by Mark Johnston's Storm Moon. Perhaps she didn't enjoy the surface: perhaps that was as good as she is. This faster surface is likely to be more suiting and this daughter of Pastoral Pursuits is worth another chance although winning would be a surprise.

Ceiling Kitty is probably held by Woodland Mill. She ran out of energy when going down all guns blazing in the soft ground at Beverley. This quick 5f will be in her favour but others may hold the aces.

Effie B is a tiny filly of first-season sensation Sixties Icon. After winning well at Nottingham, she looked limited at Salisbury. Unlikely to figure.

Another who needs to transform is Mayfield Flyer. Mel Brittain's youngster ran a stormer in the Brocklesby before ruining her chance with a slow start in soft ground at Beverley. A fair-looking daughter of One Cool Cat, she took advantage of a very restricted race at Thirsk. This will be tough and best watched.

The winner of that contest was Richard Fahey's debutante Ingleby Royale. That was a creditable victory in soft ground and she could well improve for that initial performance. One of few with the potential to progress but more is needed.

Lothian Countess was a surprise package when winning at odds of 66/1 on debut. The form of that race has been franked although the likes of All Fur Coat (2nd) must have improved a good deal for that first run. George Foster's youngster deserves her chance but needs to have improved.

This Is Nice concludes the field. Tom Dascombe's two-year-olds have made a stuttering start to the season, taking time to get off the mark. But they have won a race or two of late. This daughter of Exceed And Excel showed promise on debut behind Yes Two. She was unfancied on debut and could show more on this second start but unlikely to trouble the main contenders.

Conclusion: This race is all about Bailey's Jubilee. She has abundant natural pace which will have most of this field in trouble after a couple of furlongs. York is a track which suits front runners and this youngster will enjoy faster ground. You have to wonder if any of this opposition can put down a serious challenge. Dream Vale won with ease at Catterick but that was a poor race. Ingleby Royale ran well when victorious on debut. She could improve but needs to. Woodland Mill may have a glimmer of hope if that second effort was all wrong but has question marks. Somethingboutmary done well to win at Southwell after being outpaced and green. This youngster has a determined attitude which will see her well. However, Bailey's Jubilee will have Royal Ascot on the agenda. 

Note: HCE Gold (restricted members' page) has just been updated