Sunday 29 April 2012

5:40 Windsor (30th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

Racing Abandoned 

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 10y on heavy ground. Six juveniles, four with form, consisting of five colts & one filly.

Bill Turner has been in cracking form with his two-year-olds this season and Hillbilly Boy is an interesting contender here. This son of Haafhd was a cheap purchase at £15,000 but I have a strong idea this is Turner's best juvenile. The main reason for this opinion is because this talented trainer has been very complimentary about this youngster. In fact, he has said on a number of occasions Hillbilly Boy was better than a few of his winning juveniles. In addition, this was meant to be his Brocklesby horse, which time after time has proven to be his best two-year-old. He fluffed his lines on debut when connections expected a win and it was no surprise this juvenile with size and scope ran a storming race on his second start at Beverley. Time will tell that was a fair auction maiden and it is only a matter of time before he attains his first victory after being deprived last time in a photo finish. Apprentice, Da Silva, gave him a fine ride that day and the soft ground seems to his liking. Turner said Hillbilly Boy would have won with more cover, so I would imagine he will be held-up just off the pace and fight out the finish. I feel this colt will take the beating. 

Richard Hannon has a reputation for winning at Windsor and he certainly holds a respectable strike rate. The stable had four juveniles declared to run at the first entry stage, with Ryan Moore booked to ride each. Citius, owned by Julie Wood, was fancied to win at Bath on debut, against a few fair form horses. Not the biggest of colts, this son of Iffraaj was quite costly at £72,000, out of an unraced mare. I can imagine the Hannon team were disappointed not to win on his bay colt's race course bow. Being a January foal, they probably thought he was forward enough to do himself justice. However, the leaders set a frantic pace and he was soon a number of lengths off the pace. His jockey was earnest in his attitude to win and Citius ran on with purpose although could never quite get close to the winner who looked good for a length or two more. Sean Levey gave this juvenile a good few cracks of the whip, which suggested he was fit but inexperience was costly. On balance the Bath race wasn't the strongest of contests. The second, Poetic Princess, is a fair guide to that race. Hughes' filly has an element of ability, but also limitation. Citius is likely to be wiser for that race and should be up with the pace. Hannon's juveniles feature a much greater win rate on their second start and he looks a straightforward horse. 

The stable is also represented by Jimmy Elder a cheap purchase and son of Invincible Spirit. Pat Dods takes the ride. On paper, this juvenile would seem to be second string and that is most likely the case. However, the stable are not against a gamble or two and if backed it would be wise to take note.

From comments made by James Millman, Yes Two is their sole early juvenile. This March foal by Indesatchel has size and scope to progress with racing. The dam was an out and out sprinter trained by Jack Berry but this youngster may appreciate further in time. He is a bulky type with an exaggerated running action, which made him look rather ponderous against the experienced Dreamy Ciara. This bay colt is likely to be wiser for that race although there is always a slight concern he will be similarly outpaced. On balance, it is best to give juveniles the benefit of the doubt as they can be transformed from their first to second start. The stable have a poor strike rate on debut, but a significantly increased chance on their second start. As with most juveniles, they are most likely to show their ability on this of all days. The stable are worthy of respect and a recent stakes race entry gives encouragement. 

The other form horse, Baltic Gin, a number of lengths behind Citius on debut at Bath after being tardy from the stalls, making no real progress thereafter. From what was viewed that day, this bay filly has little hope. It is, however, worth noting that Malcolm Saunders has sent a number of capable juveniles to race at Bath on debut, which could be a sign of hope. In fact, a number have won on their second start at huge prices. Best watched although a stable to respect.

Fat Gary, owned by Fat Gary Sports, is trained by Tom Dascombe.  It is somewhat surprising to note than the stable are still awaiting their first juvenile winner but they are a talented outfit and their two-year-olds should always be respected on debut. This February foal by Dutch Art cost 34,000euros as a yearling, although the mare was pretty poor racing over a distance. The betting is the best guide to this colt's chances and money always talks with this stable. They can win on debut and if priced 13/2 & less could be a danger.

Conclusion: The heavy ground conditions are probably the most significant factor to who will win or lose. The debutantes are unlikely to be given a hard time on such a testing surface and would need to win on natural ability. The betting should tell the story for both, especially Fat Gary. It isn't beyond the realms a debutante could win but I would stick with those with experience. I like Hillbilly Boy. He looks the type to enjoy these testing conditions and he is high in the pecking order for Turner's juveniles. The trainer said he was better than some of their two-year-old winners and I'm pretty sure he is the stable's best juvenile. He would be my pick. Citius will improve for the experience although he was ridden as if fit on debut at Bath. He was a costly buy and pretty fancied that day so he may well be primed for a big run. The second that day, Poetic Princess, has just about enough ability to win a small race, so more will be needed. Whether he will enjoy this testing surface is a matter for debate. A horse to respect but one I would rather watch than back. A similar story can be told for Yes Two. Millman's two-year-olds often go well on their second start and deserve respect especially at speculative odds. This colt will not be a big price for this race and needs to be wiser for that race course bow. There is little doubt he will improve and he is a colt with size and scope. He seemed a little ponderous that day, if not looking to have slightly unusual conformation of his front legs, and pronounced running action which didn't appeal. In many ways he could be suited by this heavy ground but he could be a little outpaced. On a form line through Poetic Princess (Dreamy Ciara), there may not be a great deal between him & Citius. The stakes entry is a sign of encouragement but I would take a watching brief. On balance, Baltic Gin looks to have no chance but the stable have provided speculative-priced winners on their second start so may run better.