Monday 23 April 2012

5:30 Southwell (24th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

The British Stallion Studs 32 Red.Com E B F Novice Stakes over 5f. Five runners, comprising two winners, and couple of form horses with a debutante thrown in for good measure.

It would be a surprise if this race didn't revolve around the previously stylish winners.

Woodland Mill made her debut at Kempton in the first two-year-old race of the season. This brown filly, daughter of Pastoral Pursuits, cost £20,000 at the yearling sales. A full-sister to Here Now And Why who was a fair winning juvenile trained by Kevin Ryan and highly tried. This March foal ran with real professionalism when partnered by Paul Hanagan. She has a beautifully fluent stride and ran out a tidy winner giving the impression there would be more to come. Richard Fahey is an excellent trainer and places his two-year-olds with due attention. In fairness, the form of that Kempton race is probably no more than average. However, two juveniles have franked the form to some extent and a couple of others have run with credit. In true cliché fashion, this filly was doing all her best work at the finish and that initial experience will see her go well.

Storm Moon is a son of Invincible Spirit and won comfortably on debut at Musselburgh. A wide draw didn't hinder this bay colt's chances as he fairly flew from the stalls and had the opposition in trouble from the start. Mark Johnston's representative was well backed for this race, which may have been inspired by the success of Bailey's Jubilee at Kempton. Storm Moon is a powerful juvenile with an abundance of natural speed and by all accounts wasn't pressed to win. The form of those behind has been franked with the sixth, eighth and ninth showing, seemingly, marked improvement on their second starts. The runner-up, Just Past Andover, disappointed on his last start but may have gone a stride too fast. The Musselburgh race was all about one horse - the winner. Bailey's Jubilee has since cruised to her second win and looks a talent. Johnston will be hoping this youngster can follow in a similar vein.

Of the form horses *Poetic Princess has been knocking on the door and straightforward filly. Jo Hughes is an able trainer but this daughter of Byron was put in her place by Woodland Mill on debut. She may have been a shade unlucky when losing by a fraction against Dreamy Ciara at Wolverhampton. However, she struggled at Bath when outpaced, before running on, to lose to Chilworth Icon by a couple of lengths. This March foal is small and unlikely to progress with racing. It wouldn't be a surprise to see her on the back foot if Storm Moon employs front-running tactics. Clearly Hughes is trying to offset every disadvantage with seven-pound apprentice Josh Boudains in the saddle and better off in the weights with the winners carrying penalties for their victories. However, this looks a stiff task. Of all things, it is her physical limitation which proves a negative.

Secret Destination is a cheap purchase for Brian Ellison and showed little ability on debut at Beverley. Breeding suggests this daughter of Dubai Destination may need a test of stamina. The sloppy conditions may not have been to her liking and it could be a positive that she was well backed. However, a recent entry for a selling race doesn't inspire confidence against this class of opposition and this looks a mountain to climb.

The debutante hails from Robin Bastiman's stable. Hellolini is a home bred daughter of Bertolini. The mare, Smiddy Hill, was a capable sprinter but it would be a minor miracle for this filly to win on debut.

Conclusion: The winner of this race may have aspirations of Royal Ascot, especially if taking this in convincing style. Woodland Mill was professional on debut and has a fluent running action which impresses. There was much to like about that performance. But can a fair filly beat a fair colt? For all of her streetwise nature, Storm Moon was even more eye-catching. I can see Joe Fanning pressing on with the attitude of ''catch me if you can''. This bulky colt looks to have the pace to have most of these on the back foot within strides. At the prices there seems little to gain by betting although I would favour Johnston's colt. Poetic Princess has a big weight concession but is very small in stature. I fear she will be outpaced if the favourites burst from the stalls. Her only hope is that the major fancies do a little too much in front and falter in the final furlong. Hughes filly is the type to run to the line but I would be surprised if she causes an upset. Secret Destination and Hellolini have little chance.