Wednesday 18 April 2012

2:10 Ripon (19th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f on good to soft ground. Eight juveniles take part - an equal measure of colts and fillies - with a solitary horse with race experience.

Traditionally this has been a notable race for Tim Easterby who has made a habit of winning with talented fillies: Cristal Clear, Anglezarke & Queen's Revenge all prevailed before competing at pattern class in their two-year-old careers. This year's represented is called Annie Gogh. A relatively cheap purchase at just £10,500. Mrs Jean Connow [owner] has been very successful with horses running in her familiar yellow and white silks, including supreme sprinter Flanders, who won her first four contests for this stable at two before competiting in the Cheveley Park (Group 1). This bay filly - a January foal - is a daughter of Dutch Art out of a moderate winning mare who came into her own after showing little in her first season. She was at best a limited handicapper. Interestingly, this was one of five juveniles entered by the trainer, although Allan was always booked to ride this mount.  It is ironic that in general Easterby has a poor strike rate with his debutantes but this race has proven an exception to the rule. If previous years are anything to go by, this filly could be a winner.

Botanic Garden may have claims. This bay colt a son of Royal Applause cost £35,000, bought by John Fretwell at the Doncaster Premier Yearling Sales, now racing in the owner's lime-green silks. The mare won on debut over a mile at the Curragh. David Brown is a talented trainer and this partnership has had some success with two-year-olds such as Where's Romeo, Full Support and best of the lot Easy Ticket who at one time held hopes of being a talented juvenile. The stable feature a fair win and place rate with their fancied runners on debut although a wide draw is a concern.

Royal Jenray & Sound Affects both hail from trainers who often improve for the race and best watched on debut.

The only juvenile with race experience is Lady Poppy trained by George Moore. She was quite fancied on debut in the Brocklesby priced 9/1. This daughter of Kyllachy wasn't disgraced after showing good pace, although the form of  that race has taken several knocks of late. In recent years the stable have gone close in this Ripon contest and they could well hold aspirations of doing the same today. The negative, that this bay filly isn't the most attractive juvenile: quite lightly built and leggy. Fillies come in all shapes and sizes and they can - at times - be deceptively difficult to assess, especially compared to colts. However, even with this in mind, I feel others make more appeal.

The last three debutantes are all worthy of note because, as a starting point, their trainers can win with two-year-olds on their race course bow.

Richard Fahey is a fantastic trainer of juveniles and one of few handlers to feature almost equal success with his fancied debutantes as those making their second start. This is a very unusual statistic and reason why his youngsters are so dangerous at the first time of asking. Fly Fishing comes from a decent family and cost 25,000gns at Tattersalls Yearling Sale. This chestnut son of Camacho is not quite two and the youngest in the field. The mare, Kelsey Rose, was trained by David Evans and quite a talented filly over 5-8f, attaining an official rating of 97.  The betting is the best guide to this ones chances and if fancied has sound win and place claims. 

The rather unflatteringly named Run Fat Lass Run hails from Kevin Ryan's Hambleton Stable. This bay filly has breeding to enjoy a test of stamina and a 4,000gn foal. The majority of the stable's debutantes win when priced 13/2 & less. Unless substantially backed I would take a watching brief. Also, the yard doesn't have as many winners on their race course bow as often perceived.

No Reply was another cheap buy from a stable who often go well when the money is down. If backed to 13/2 & less this grey colt by Avonbridge would hold fair win and place claims. At this time [Wednesday, evening] he is weak on the exchanges. The stable have a fair place rate with debutantes at speculative odds so may have a glimmer of hope but probably best watched unless the money talks.

Conclusion: Lady Poppy may burst from the stalls, taking advantage of valuable race experience, however physically she doesn't appeal. Annie Gogh could be the star of the show if following in the hoof prints of many a good filly who have made this race the keeping of Tim Easterby. It would take a brave person to discount this juvenile's chances and could take some beating. The betting will be the best guide to Botanic Garden. If priced 13/2 & less, he has fair win and place claims. Fly Fishing is quite nicely bred and if fancied is one of the best candidates on a statistical basis. The others are best watched unless substantially backed.      



These were all well regarded 2yo which didn't run last year but make intriguing 3yo prospects. Only yesterday Nine Realms ran a stormer for William Haggis at 25/1. I noticed there are a couple of these running at Newmarket [Thursday] which may have a chance. I don't know if they will win or not but know they are talented.

2:25 Newmarket - Gold Edition
5:20 Newmarket - Junior Diary 

1:30 Newbury - Dick Bos

Sadly, I will not have time to mention any more but you can track the progress of all of the HCE Dark Horses if you click on the link (above). Be interesting to see how these three go.