Friday 6 April 2012

1:35 Kempton (7th April) Horse Racing Tips


Potentially a stronger maiden than we have seen of late, although last year's winner, Jawkin, was limited. 

After his Brocklesby disappoint, Marvelino is on a recovery mission. This son of Captain Marvelous is intriguing. To start 11/4f on debut suggests ample ability had been viewed on the gallops. Pat Eddery rarely has juveniles start favourite on debut let alone a competitive race. It may be wise to consider there is better to come. If a two-year-old can be afforded an excuse it's debut is as good a day as any to founder. Plenty of horses disappoint then show their worth next time out. In truth, this bay colt is a fair-looking juvenile. Beyond fitness/injury issues, which seem unlikely, the only excuse one could reason is that he was a little too keen over the first couple of furlongs. Marvelino led the field at a fair clip with most on the edge of toiling in his wake. Although not pulling hard, that exuberance may have been his destructive element. Disappointing horses are difficult to asses.To some extent you are damned if you do bet and damned if you don't. Question marks are never a good starting point.The only exception is when speculative odds are on offer. If this juvenile has ability, I would expect to see a bold show today. However, a watching brief is probably the safest option although it may prove a mistake to discard this juvenile without fear of opposition.

Lyric Ace is a bay colt by Thousand Word, a February foal. Richard Hannon is never long waiting for winners and we will witness plenty of two-year-old stars this season. This representative has been very well supported on the exchanges [Friday evening] and likely to start favourite. This bay colt cost  £21,000. The stable have a fair win rate at the course and their short-priced favourites often go well on debut. It is never - in my opinion - simple to win on debut: inexperience can be costly. This youngster has been entered to run at stakes class, which speaks well. Certainly one for the short list. 

Ralph Beckett's juveniles are always worthy of respect on debut. Fortinbrass is an interesting entrant here. The stable feature a fair strike rate on debut  which is a comment upstanding for both course and jockey. A relatively cheap purchase at £8,000, this son of Baltic King isn't best drawn. The turning nature of this course often causes problems for debutantes and it would be a problem if pushed wide or losing places. It is worth noting that this colt held an entry for the Brocklesby, which may prove significant. 

Hatts Off has been supported on the exchanges, so it will be interesting if this holds firm up to the start of the race. A relatively expensive purchase at £33,000, from a talented stable. However, few of  John Best's two-year-olds win on debut, which may be a stumbling block. If strongly fancied - and failing - this son of Royal Applause should be noted next start. Best watched.

Mick Channon has sent out a couple of placed-effort two-year-olds so far. Chilworth Icon is a late foal (May). Encouragement may be gained from a recent stakes race entry. However, the stable feature a poor win rate at the course. Although drawn well in stall one, the betting may offer the best guide. Very few of the stable's juveniles win when priced over 8/1 on debut. At present Chilworth Icon is weak on the exchanges, which suggests better is yet to come.

London Market Racing Club own Lea Valley Black, a relative cheap buy. Dascombe is one of few trainers to fear on debut because his juveniles are generally fit and ready for action. The betting is the best guide to this gambling stable. If fancied in the market, this bay colt by Three Valleys has fair win and place claims.

Modern Society & Mosstang are best watched.

Bailey's Jubilee is one of two fillies in the field, trained by Mark Johnston. I always find this yard difficult to assess - easy winners or trailing home in disappointing fashion. From experience, their best two-year-olds are kept under wraps until May. 

The other filly is trained by Bill Turner, whose been firing home the two-year-old winners.  A wide draw is a concern for Coconut Kisses. Paul Mulrennan is an usual jockey booking for the stable. I would take this as a negative, in a race which the winner will most likely be a capable horse. 

Conclusion: Lyric Ace is strongly fancied on the betting exchanges and the stable often go well with such candidates. In my opinion, short-priced debutantes are seldom good bets. I would have to take a watching brief. If Marvelino has ability, expect a bold show today. With that initial experience onside, this good-looking colt could well try to lead all the way. A turning track could help pace himself, while the debutantes may struggle with this course. In many ways a difficult horse to asses but starting favourite for the Brocklesby may just prove this horse is held in some regard. Lea Valley Black would have fair win and place claims if priced 7/1 & less. The betting is key and weakness would be a negative. Fortinbrass is interesting, from a stable who can win on debut, although the draw is not ideal. The others are best watched.