Thanks for Sean Kelsey allowing HCE to publish his well-received preview
Welcome to my preview. I've tried to base all my selections on the form
book and watching previous races and
not get swayed by hype and public opinion. I've included some eachway
selections at decent prices as the bookmakers terms for the festival are as
generous as you can get. There are plenty of offers available and I recommend
you shop around.
At time of publishing (12th March) you must appreciate that
some horses have more than one engagement and their running plans are not
fixed. All odds quoted were available at time of writing, Non Runner No Bet.
I've assumed it's going to be Good to Soft ground and will try and
identify any horses that would appreciate softer or quicker going.
I’ll do an update after the meeting and let you know how my selections
got on.
Day 4 – Friday 16th March
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle
Pearl Swan and Grumeti met back in January at Cheltenham. Pearl Swan
finished in front that day but lost the race in the stewards room due to
interference. Difficult to decide on who will got on top in a re-match - some
commentators believe Ruby Walsh rode a great race out the back but I just
wonder if he got outpaced and then stayed on. Either way I'm not sure I'd want
him too far back in this race. The Irish challenge doesn't look too good. Ut De
Sivola only won last time due a mistake by a rival at the last. Darroun beat
that same rival by a length or so after that so these appear closely matched.
The forgotten horse appears to be Urbain de Sivola who won good race at Newbury
last year. He comprehensively beat Ranjaan who has since come out and won a
handicap off 132. The third and fourth have also come out and won. At 20/1 he's
an outstanding bet. The one Irish horse I like in the race is Hisaabaat. He was
transformed by the blinkers last time and I expect him to run well.
1 pt ew Urbain De Sivola 20/1
2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Snap Tie is on a very competitive mark but has been off the track for
882 days - that's a bit long for a 14/1 shot. This is ultra-competitive and I
have a shortlist of Moon Dice, Sailor's Warn, Olofi, Ifyouletmefinish, Kalann
and Dee Ee Williams. I'll be waiting until the overnight declarations before
looking at this.
No bet
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Boston Bob will be all the rage but I prefer Sea of Thunder at a bigger
price on quick ground. Sea of Thunder probably would have won at Cheltenham in
December had he not fallen at the last on good ground. Unsuited by heavy ground
last time he can get a lot closer this time. Mount BenBulben can fill the other
place.
1 pt win Sea of Thunder 7/1
3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Kauto Star is back on top form this season having beat Long Run twice.
Long Run should get a bit closer today but his jumping still looks suspect to
me and is no value at 2/1. I'll be cheering on Kauto Star but I will be having
another bet in the race. Midnight Chase loves Cheltenham and if the ground is
on the quick side I'll be having a bet on him. I backed Weird Al ante-post
after the Charlie Hall chase. To be honest I thought he'd run better at Haydock
but in hindsight a two length beating by Long Run puts him bang there. He's
definitely value at 12/1 and the track will suit. The race at Haydock may have
come a bit too soon after Wetherby as he does appear best when fresh.
1 pt ew Midnight Chase 12/1
1 pt ew Weird Al 12/1
4.00 Foxhunter Chase
A hunter chase with amateur riders. I don't claim to know anything about
these types of races. Generally though ex-National hunt horses who get old and
are sent hunting don't do that well in this race. Chapoturgeon is only 8 years
old and so doesn't quite fit that mould. There is a doubt about him staying and
if you look at his sire's progeny, out of 34 attempts at this distance or
beyond, none have won and only six have been placed. That's enough to put me
off at 9/2. Cloudy Lane has been talked up by his trainer for the last few
weeks. He was a class horse a few years ago and this is his sort of distance.
and he goes on the ground. At around 7/1, despite being too old to win this according
to the stats, he looks a decent bet. The one I like at a big price is Bradley.
Still only 8 he goes on the ground and will stay. The time before last he was
beaten by Monkerty Tunkerty but he was giving away a fair bit of weight and he
got a bit buzzed up prior to the race. He can turn around that form. Since then
he's won the Royal Artillery Cup at Sandown. At 33/1 he appears to have been
overlooked.
1 pt win Cloudy Lane 7/1
1 pt ew Bradley 33/1
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap
Too many runners still entered and very difficult.
No bet.
5.15 Grand Annual Chase
A two mile handicap chase that looks really tricky. However Kid Cassidy
is a horse with loads of ability who is probably better than his mark.
1 pt ew Kid Cassidy 10/1
Total stake Day 4 - 12 points
Total stake for meeting - 54
points
Thanks, Sean, for your sterling write-up. I'm sure all would agree it has added to the Cheltenham experience. Much appreciated.