Friday 11 November 2011

1:25 Lingfield (11th November) Horse Racing Tips/Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f. A fascinating little race. Make no mistake, More Than Words was expected to win on debut. However, she was beaten by a fair horse in Lexington Pearl. It was also a controversial race because Hughes was given a whip ban for his determined efforts to prevail. This daughter of Lawman was substantially backed that day and I have little doubt connections expected a tidy win.

A costly purchase at E145,000, this first foal is bred to be fast. If taking after her dam, Gilded, a winner of the Queen Mary (Group 2), she has little to fear against this opposition. More Than Words was ridden with great confidence on debut and looked to have an outstanding chance but couldn't quite hold the challenge of Beckett's juvenile who could be pretty smart. The form of that race is difficult to assess but the first two were in a different world. I was surprised how much money came for this youngster. I don't think the Hannon yard could believe she was beaten. That suggests better things are expected and the one to beat.

Lupo D'Oro has proven to be a consistent, durable juvenile. A bonny little colt who tries to win which is never a bad place to start. However, this son of Amadeus Wolf has the habit of coming second. Best's two-year-old has a level of ability but that has to be measured with clear limitation. With race fitness, experience, and a low draw on this turning 5f, he might be able to poach a lead. However, there is a fear the seconditis may continue. 

Lost City is an intriguing juvenile. I remember watching this two-year-old run at the Curragh. It caught my attention because it was a few day before the British Flat season started. This son of Elusive City - a 50,000gns yearling purchase - was all the rage that day and backed to odds on. Whatever the reason, be it soft ground or injury, he ran no race and hasn't been seen since. Connections clearly expected something that day and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this juvenile go well. However, he is very weak on the betting exchanges which gives the impression little is expected. Owners Sir Alex Ferguson and Jack Hanson like a punt and the only hope for this runner today is if he is backed. After such an absence it is difficult to imagine whether he is fit. At present he is about 16/1 on Betfair, which looks a huge price and it might just be worth a few quid anticipating a gamble. A watching brief.

Last but not least of the major contenders is Andrew Balding's Intransigent. A relatively cheap purchase, this gelding was quite fancied on debut at Salisbury when running over 7f. By all accounts he didn't achieve a great deal. It is encouraging that this youngster was fancied on debut but this drop back to 5f looks a strange move. After struggling to go the pace, it would seem logical he will be outpaced over this minimum trip. Whether this fear materialises only time will tell. On the positive side, a number of the family have won over 5f. Balding is a fantastic trainer but I would have to give others the edge today because a slow start would be huge disadvantage.

The rest of the field need to find huge improvement to figure.

Conclusion: More Than Words is likely to take all the beating. After being substantially backed on debut I am sure connections were surprised they didn't win at the first time of asking. If taking after her dam, she will win with ease. Lupo D'Oro has a level of ability but although a fair sort is vulnerable to a talent. A horse with place claims but needing the major hope to falter to win. Lost City must have had a reputation at some point because it seems strange connections went to the Curragh on debut, especially to be priced odds on. The betting will tell the story today. If substantially backed he may have claims but a watching brief is the best option. Intransigent may struggle to cope with this drop to 5f. If priced 9/1 & less he has place claims (although two places doesn't inspire). One to watch.

HCE: ''Intransigent had no problems with this drop in distance and was backed to win. Lost City ran well in second, with both the favourites looking disappointing.''