Tuesday 4 October 2011

3:00 Catterick - Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f on good ground. A tricky race. Come On Dave had shown no ability in three starts before his transformed performance over course and distance at the end of August. A 66/1 shot that day, this gelding by Red Clubs showed blistering pace only to be caught close home by Free Zone. Whether this was a flash in the pan or the start of a progressive profile only time will tell. However, this juvenile is most likely to make a bold show and could be hard to peg back.

Half A Billion is becoming a frustrating character. Dod's two-year-old is an attractive colt with size and strength. His downfall is that he cannot settle and prone to pull in the early part of the race, which leaves him wanting in the closing stages. If this son of Acclamation doesn't expend too much energy in the hands of Hanagan he would be a difficult horse to beat. However, there still remains a fear he will struggle to run to the line.

Annie Beach is no world beater but she has plenty of pace but most importantly settles and this could be key in a race where Come On Dave is likely to set the pace, while Half A Billion may well pull. Barron's little filly should have enough pace to sit in a handy position and hope for the main two protagonists to falter. 

Untold Melody may have place claims.

Conclusion: It's often the case over this flying 5f that the field is strung out after a couple of furlongs. Each of the major fancies has a question mark. Come On Dave is speedy. But was that a flash in the pan? On balance, I would imagine Nicholls' runner will run to a similar level which gives him strong claims although he may be vulnerable at the finish. Half A Billion is a frustrating character but could go well if settling. That is his Achilles heel. I would fear he will ruin his chance by pulling in the early stages and struggle t0 finish his race. Annie Beach is limited but a consistent sort who may well pick up the pieces if the favourites falter and has win and place claims.

HCE Regular Tip   3:00 Catterick - Annie Beach 5/1 1pt ew (1st)

HCE: ''Just a moderate race. Annie Beach ran her normal, consistent race, while the major fancies faltered, as suggested in this post. Barron's filly is limited but speedy and settles very well - a deserving victory. Untold Melody ran on with purpose, clearly needing 6f to be seen at her best. Come On Dave probably had things go his way last time and didn't enjoy the company of Annie Beach and crumpled when push came to shove. Half A Billion is regressing and best left alone until returning to form.''