Tuesday 18 October 2011

2:50 Yarmouth (18th October) Horse Racing Tips/Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f 3y on good ground. The majority of this field will be back-end maidens gaining racing experience. The main protagonists a select few. Roger Varian has followed in the footsteps of his late mentor Michael Jarvis and a very capable trainer. Varian's juveniles are generally priced in single-figure digits on debut and Aljamaaheer is likely to start a hot favourite. This chestnut colt, a son of Dubawi, cost 100,000gns as a foal and a half-brother to Tinkertown.

On breeding, this more sprinting distance may be insufficient and in future a greater test of stamina is likely to be on the agenda. A stable to respect on debut but a watching brief.

Twin Shadow is an interesting entrant for James Fanshawe. The stable's two-year-old have been very quiet this season although this daughter of Dubawi is worthy of consideration today. She ran creditably on debut at Kempton over 7f and that run will be to her advantage against a field of mostly inexperienced juveniles. Fanshawe rarely has his horses primed on debut but features a much better strike rate with two-year-olds on their second start. Clipper Logistics are canny owners and they have been blessed with a number of quality horses over the years. This filly showed promise on her race course bow and connections will be expecting a big run today. A fair win and place wager.

The most experienced horse in the field is Represent, trained by Mick Channon. This filly has shown ability in her six races to date but although capable doesn't look the most enthusiastic of horses when push comes to shove. This daughter of Exceed And Excel has claims at best. However, she doesn't really give the impression that she wants to win.

After a pretty stop-start season from Mark Johnston's two-year-olds, he has seen a couple of debutante winners in the last week. Lady Macduff cost 200,000gns at the breeze-up sales and a bay filly by Iffraaj. Perhaps these recent victories have brought a renewed confidence as there has been money for this horse on the exchanges. With De Sousa clinging to hopes of winning the Champion Jockey's title this may be an additional reason for its popularity. Johnston is often a difficult trainer to assess with his debutantes. There seems to be no middle ground - just winners or disappointing losers. The stable do not feature a very good strike rate at the course and a horse I would rather watch and learn a little more today.

Of the others, Shatter is an interesting jockey booking for Hanagan. This Cheveley Park Stud representative is worth noting, especially if backed. William Haggis doesn't feature the best strike rate with his debutantes and it usually takes one of his better prospects to win at the first time of asking. However, his juveniles often run well at Yarmouth and she might sneak into a place.

Conclusion: Aljamaaheer is likely to go off a pretty hot favourite. He has breeding to appreciate a greater test of stamina and although this may be no more than a run-of-the-mill maiden I would rather take a watching brief. Represent has ability but doesn't seem the most willing at the finish and one to be careful with. Twin Shadow was backed on debut which suggests there will be better to come. If fancied in the betting, this filly has fair win and place claims. Of the others Lady Macduff has been backed but one I would rather watch than bet, while Shatter could have place claims.

HCE: ''An easy win for the well backed Aljamaaheer. He may have been coltish before the race but he always travelled with authority and should go on to better things. Luca Cumani had a 100/1 second, Mezzotint, while another debutante Cappielow Park finished third. Twin Shadow was given as an HCE Elite Tip but showed little. A disappointing display because there was good reason to expect a sterling performance.''