Monday 31 October 2011

2:15 Wolverhampton (31st October) Horse Racing Tips/Result

A Maiden Stakes over 5f 20y. Exceedance should win. In fact, I would be very confident but for one dilemma. Will he settle? This son of Exceed And Excel has been favourite on both starts to date and clearly held in some regard by Bryan Smart. However, on both outings he has pulled much to hard and struggled to last the final half furlong. This turning course is likely to help but whether he will tire at the death is a concern.

There is a chance after such a lay-off that he was simply too fresh and will be better prepared for what should be a winning return. If betting, it would be wise to lay your stake at short odds in-running. On balance, at a restrictive price, I would have to take a watching brief. In ways I would be tempted to lay this juvenile at 1.01 for a few thousand just in case he looks like a certainty and the wheels fall off. It isn't beyond the realms.

Crazy Too could be a safe option because she will run her race. Simcock's filly - a daughter of Invincible Spirit - cost 85,000gns. That was a fair effort at Yarmouth last time, where this bay filly showed good pace before tiring in the closing stages. Whether that pace will be blunted dropping back to the minimum trip is a matter of debate. However, in what looks to be a moderate race, Crazy Too should hit the frame and could well pick up the pieces if Exceedance is his errant self.

It is good to see Hans Adielsson have a couple of two-year-old winners this season, especially the victory of Holly Martins. Littlesuzie ran in the same race as Exceedance, showing a deal of encouragement considering she was badly hampered by Yeeow, who clipped heels, but amazingly stayed on his feet. This daughter of Kyllachy wasn't beaten far and could improve. If Exceedance is on his best behaviour, she is likely to struggle to beat this colt. But with his   uncertain behavior it is difficult to assess this filly's chance today.

Of the others, Launch On Line showed good speed on debut but looked regressive on her next two starts. This filly was very small and resembled a plater so will need to have grown or found some form to figure here. Bill Turner is a superb trainer and always to be respected, although I would have to take a watching brief.

Conclusion: A tricky old race. At best Exceedance wins. At worst, he pulls too hard and tires in the final 100 yards. It is possible Eaves may try to settle him off the pace. Whether that will add fuel to the fire only time will tell. At short odds you have to question whether it is worth the hassle. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this colt win in style but I would be tempted to lay this juvenile at huge odds-on and hope he looks like a certainty and loses. At worst, if you bet on the straight win it would be sensible to lay your stake at short odds as some form of insurance. Crazy Too would be a fair each way selection if price allows. While Littlesuzie may have claims.

HCE: ''Pretty straightforward for Bryan Smart's Exceedance. He is a colt with an abundance of speed and this turning track may have helped him in ways, although I can't help but think this performance was very similar to that seen at Bath last time. This turning track suited and he never had any worries about winning after scooting a few lengths clear at the final bend. Andrew Tinkler [owner] was interviewed on ATR and said he was held in high regard and that Smart had told him this was the fastest two-year-old he had trained. He is speedy but needs to settle to progress and will be vulnerable if trying similar tactic in a stiffer race. He seems to have got in the habit of pulling, which may be a problem. However,  it was pleasing to view this juvenile winning.''