Thursday 1 September 2011

2:30 Redcar (1st September) - Result

A restricted Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f on good to soft ground.

A lowly affair.

This is most likely a battle of the form horses - with One Kool Dude and Rougini topping the list. Both have been knocking on the door, deserving of victory, but always finding one too good.

Rougini has plenty of pace but it will be intriguing whether Elliot presses on or employs waiting tactics. She was put in her place by Sonko last time. In fairness, that juvenile is a decent horse at plating class and a battling type, so second wasn't a noteable step backwards. The major problem with this daughter of Bertolini is that she struggles to get the trip. If front running, she is likely to travel well and probably have many of these looking beaten. However, that last 100m seems a long way. I would be tempted to lay this filly in-running at huge odds on and hope she gains an easy lead to be beaten.

One Kool Dude is a capable juvenile. Fahey must be scratching is head wondering how this bonny colt hasn't managed to win. This race is as bad as he has competed and if a win is ever coming his way it should be today. His strength is the fact he runs to the line, which might not be the case for Rougini. Five and six furlongs come alike and this is a fine opportunity. The only fear is that after so many races this son of Iceman may be regressing. On balance, this chestnut colt deserves one more chance.

Of the opposition, the unraced juveniles are unlikely to attain the level of ability set by those mentioned. The only exception may be  Annie Beach. David Barron has done well with his debutantes this season and should be respected when priced 13/2 & less. If heavily backed, a big run could be on the cards.

Conclusion: A poor race. This is probably a match between One Kool Dude and Rougini. Both, however, would be prone to a debutante with ability. On balance, that is unlikely to happen in a race of such a restricted nature. Rougin has pace but her Achille's heel is the fact she struggles to finish with vim or vigour. This Redcar 5f is fast but the slower ground may be against her. I would fear whatever tactics are employed One Kool Dude will hold the aces at the line. The problem with Fahey's juvenile is that price to chance I would rather watch than bet just in case a fair debutante pops up or he throws in a poor run. The only bet for me, would be laying Rougini at huge odds on in-running and hope after looking an easy winner she falters at the finish.

HCE: 'Good to see Rougini winning her first race. She was tiring in the latter stages but had enough of a lead to beat moderate opposition. One Kool Dude was outpaced, ran on with some purpose, but all too late. A stiffer test is needed but needs a restricted race to defy the losing run. Sir Windsorlot took third.'