Thursday 4 August 2011

2:10 Haydock (4th August) - Result

A Maiden over one mile on good ground.

Quite an interesting selection of two-year-olds. A number with potential to win in their juvenile career.

Beyond Conceit - trained by Tom Tate - is warm order for this after a promising effort at Redcar on debut over 7f. A very expensive purchase at 250,000gns, this son of Galileo caught the eye running on with purpose in the final furlong after being some way off the leading pair. Backed to joint favourite, connections must have been hoping for a bold show and expecting further improvement over this mile. A Royal Lodge (Group 2) entry highlights more ambitious plans and one would think a tidy success would be needed to justify such lofty aspirations. A good-looking colt with size and scope, there is much to like. If there is one negative it is trying to assess the worth of that first start. The first four may have pulled some way clear of the field but it may have been no more than an average contest. Lucky Money may have disappointed on his next start but that brings slight concerns. At the price, I would rather watch and learn a little more.

Badea has run creditably on all three starts to date. On the last two occasions he has been favourite. Perhaps this extra furlong will bring about further improvement. A good-looking colt, his form is probably more auction standard than fully-blown maiden. Although this son of Cockney Rebel doesn't lack for trying. If some of the major fancies do not live up to expectation, he could well have place claims.

Another horse with similar form lines to Babea is Flying Trader. Jane Chapple-Hyam has commented that she had high hopes for this colt at the start of the season. In fact, he was quite fancied on his first two starts but disappointed at Newmarket. Encouragement could be gleaned from the last run at Sandown. The son of Mizzen Mast  - a breeze-up purchase at 55,000gns - plugged on quite well and it was the best we have seen so far. That was a fiercely run race with Maccabees setting the pace and Flying Trader finished as if this extra furlong could bring about improvement. Beating Tudor Empire by over a length was a respectable effort. Chapple-Hyam has spoken of this juvenile since in the Weekender and said she thought the penny had dropped and the mile would be the key. There is always a slight concern that he was somehow flattered by a very testing run although at speculative odds he is worthy of respect. The main negative is that Flying Trader isn't the best of lookers: quite a small colt - more like a filly in stature- and that doesn't fill the eye. On balance, I would give him the benefit of the doubt and at big odds could have fair win and place claims.

Alan Swinbank is a trainer to take serious note with his juveniles on their second start. In fact, the bigger the price the more attention I pay. Sygnature was quite well backed on debut at Ayr in a so so race. It wasn't the most competitiive of races but it could well be a sign of encouragement that this bay gelding by Authorized was backed. After a sluggish start, he was always slightly on the back foot but ran on with promise at the finish and will clearly benefit from that initial experience and stepping up in distance. Definitely one of the more interesting runners with fair each way claims.

Attenborough is one of three debutantes and very much an unknown quantity. An 80,000gns breeze-up purchase bought by the vendor, this American bred hails from a stable (Jeremy Noseda) that can unveil a talented juvenile at any time. A recent entry for the Royal Lodge (Group 2) is a sign that connections have seen some potential. At present this juvenile is vying for favouritism. Noseda is a difficult trainer to assess with his debutantes because the majority of them are fancied in the betting whether good, bad or ugly. He doesn't feature the greatest win rate which mean that you can never quite tell what you are getting for your money. I find that money is a much better sign for their juveniles on their second start and for that reason I would rather take a watching brief.

Conclusion: An open race. In ways all of these juveniles have something to prove but progress could well be on the cards. Badea is probably the most proven performer although I would be surprised if one or two were not better. Flying Trader is a difficult colt to assess. You will need to bank on that last running as a step in the right direction and he could be a pretty good bet at decent odds if progressing a length or two for this mile trip. I am not impressed by the physic of this juvenile. He just looks small although it takes all shapes and sizes to win a race. One for the short list. Beyond Conceit is the talking horse and could well be the classiest in the field. However, at the the odds I would rather watch and learn a little more. A similar comment goes for Attenborough. He could well win this with ease but the debut strike rate for Jeremy Noseda is not as good as people often imagine and a watching brief. From a statistical point of view, Sygnature is worthy of note. Swinbanks horses often run a much better race on their second start and he has fair each way claims.

HCE: ''A competitive heat and there wasn't much between the front four at the furlong pole. Attenborough is a good-looking colt with size and scope. He travelled well and managed to sneak a win. Badea appreciated the extra furlong after struggling to go the pace, running on well to take second. Beyond Conceit ran a fair race in third, while Flying Trader held an edge until the latter stages and ran with credit.''