Tuesday 30 August 2011

2:20 Goodwood (30th August) - Result

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over one mile on good ground.

A nice selection of promising fillies from respected stables.

On form this looks a close call between four juveniles: Amber Silk, Swingland, Specific & Defy The Odds. All are held in some regard.

Specific & Defy The Odds ran against each other at Newmarket at the end of July. The former, trained by Mahood Al Zarooni, was fractionally the better that day. The second has since ran out an easy winner when stepping up in distance at Doncaster. Specific was definitely the fitter of the two horses that day and caught Defy The Odds - trained by Sir Henry Cecil - in the closing stages. Cecil's juvenile, a daughter of Galileo, was ridden by Ian Mongan, who has since detailed in the Weekender publication that this is his horse to follow. Mongan was certainly at pains not to whip this filly and give her a nice introduction. A good-looking type, she was probably in need of the run on that initial start. This step up to one mile and Queally taking the ride give the impression this bay filly will be primed for a big run. I would favour her over Specific.

Amber Silk & Swingland, similarly, competed against each other on debut over 7f at Goodwood. There was very little between the pair at the line, although they had contrasting races. They both finished with some purpose and this extra furlong is bound to suit.

Amber Silk is quite a compact juvenile. She is likely to travel well. She had a rather luckless day on debut when trapped behind a wall of horses and had to wait until the final furlong to finally see daylight and sprinted to the line. It was an encouraging effort.

Swingland is a big filly. She looks more like a colt and would probably make many of them look small by comparison. Second string to the easy winner Gifted Girl, Paul Cole should know what it takes to win this race. The stable have a good win rate with their fancied juveniles on their second start and especially so this season. It could be a close call between the pair. I would imagine Amber Silk is likely to travel much the better of the two. Although Swingland may be wiser for that experience and Cole often instructs his jockey's to set the pace. I would just favour Swingland simply because she looked the type to improve more for that first start, being such a big, imposing filly.

It is interesting to note there is a form line between these four horses. Rythmic who beat Specific and Defy The Odds on debut has since beaten Perfect Delight who finished in something of a blanket finish with Amber Silk and Swingland. In fact, drawing a line through all of these juveniles they look quite closely matched. The deciding factor is likely to be who improves most for fitness and this extra furlong.

Conclusion: A four-cornered affair. A difficult call. I would slightly favour the other three juveniles over Specific who looked fit and ready to run on debut. Defy The Odds is a good-looking filly and she is likely to be primed for today. Amber Silk will probably travel the best of these, while Swingland is a brute of a filly who looks the type to able to fight her corner. All three juveniles have sound each way claims if prices allow. I would favour Defy The Odds & Swingland.

HCE: ''A commanding performance from the big filly Swingland. Good to see Cole's juveniles hitting the mark.''