Sunday 3 July 2011

2:15 Ayr (3rd July) - Result

The Friends Of Bob Stirling Median Auction Stakes over 7f 50y on good to firm ground.

Joshua The First - visored first time - has been knocking on the door and has an element of ability, although limited. He was outpointed by Bop It over 6f at Carlisle last time, when clear of the third. This son of Kheleyf is a determined juvenile and deserves a victory but that rests upon the quality of the opposition, especially the debutantes. This extra furlong could be the key to finding more improvement. The betting is the best indicator to his chances and although likely to find one too good, if Dalgleish's juvenile starts favourite, his claims would be greatly enhanced.

The debutantes wouldn't need to be anything special to take this at the first time of asking.

Nemushka must be respected from Richard Fahey's stable. Very few trainers win with debutantes on a regualr basis but this stable have set a standard that others could only hope to achieve. It would be no surprise to see this daughter of Sakhee go well.

Michael Dods is a superb trainer and this year's crop of two-year-olds look promising. Dods is one of those strange trainers whose juveniles often go better at bigger prices than shorter. His horses can be inexperienced but often run on with real purpose. This season, his debutantes have been running well. In fact, just about every one of them has been placed on its first start. Rasputin, cost £45,000 and owned by Andrew Tinkler. A big run should be expected.

Curtain Patch is a nicely bred juvenile from an American family. Bryan Smart's two-year-olds have been in much better form of late. His juveniles can win on debut. However, most improve for the race. Unless substantially backed, a watching brief.

Conclusion: Not the easiest race to assess with limited form horses and a selection of debutantes. The betting is the key to the chances of Joshua The First. If starting favourite he will probably go on to win. Of the debutantes Nemushka & Rasputin make most appeal.

HCE: ''Nothing too exciting. Nemushka wasn't favourite but had enough ability to beat the visored Joshua The First. Rasputin plugged on for third in a race that is no more than average.''