Wednesday 22 June 2011

8:10 Bath (22nd June) - Result

An EBF fillies' maiden stakes over 5f161y on good ground.

Quite an interesting heat with a few talented fillies on show.

*Nayarra has done little wrong in three starts. A feisty sort, this attractive daughter of Cape Cross has enough ability to win a maiden without too much fuss. To finish behind Vocational, Charlotte Rosina & Huma Bird simply proves this bay has been unlucky. It was interesting why Channon opted for the blinkers last time at Lingfield as she didn't seem unwilling although they clearly considered the application would assist. She has very good pace and even from a wide draw shouldn't have any problem racing prominently. On form, she has sound each way claims and a leading contender. The only concern with this juvenile is that she has been in a number of hard races, which at some point my take their toll. Horses can be prone to regression after three or four races and this should be taken into account. Whether she falters today only time will tell but on ability Nayarra has strong place claims and a fighting chance of gaining a win.

It is worth noting that this looks quite a competitive race. Both Midas Medusa and Ivor's Princess are fairly talented juveniles although contrast greatly in their running styles.

Midas Medusa is a good-looking filly by Elusive City and cost 190,000euros. Sir Robert Ogden always has a select bunch of two-year-olds and there is little doubt this bay filly will be winning this season. Her debut at Newmarket is best forgotten as nothing went for her that day but she ran a respectable race at Leicester. Always up with the pace, Hughes wasn't hard on her, and lost out by small margins in a blanket finish. This extra furlong shouldn't be an inconvenience and Hannon will have her primed for a big run today. She looks a progressive type who will have no problems sitting up with the pace. On form, she may have a little ground to make up on Nayarra but out of all the major hopes this filly is most likely to run her race and for that reason alone has good each way claims.

Ivor's Princess is the tortoise to Nayarra & Midas Medus's hare. Course and distance experience will not be lost on her today. This half-sister to Rosina Grey is not the most attractive juvenile but she battles. I would be surprised if she wasn't outpaced in the early stages by the the two speedier fillies mentioned above. Millman is a talented trainer and he knows the strengths and weakness of his juveniles and by all accounts that was a fair run last time. The winner, Luv U Forever, ran well at Royal Ascot and the third and fourth - although nothing special - were a few lengths behind. There is a strength to any horse running to the line because most are treading water by that time. Ivor's Princess will finish with some purpose but the question to ask is will she be outpaced to such an extent that the more speedier types gain a winning edge? I can see this grey filly being a few lengths adrift mid race but she may just hold her position to claw back the lead. In ways, it may have been better if she was drawn against the rail and it will be interesting to see if Millman takes that route because it could be a big help with a horse that takes time to find her stride. It would be a concern if she found trouble in running. Not the easiest to assess on form but a juvenile with ability and a dogged style. A major contender although you will have to hope the tortoise catches the hare. 

A few of the debutantes have been nibbled in the market. However, they will need to be pretty talented juveniles to disrupt the likely trio. With inexperience, trainers not willing to give their juveniles a hard race on their race course bows, they are instantly at a disadvantage.

Pindrop hails from a stable who can win on debut but an extreme wide draw is a major stumbling block.

Ocean Myth was quite an expensive purchase for Cheveley Park Stud but William Haggas' juveniles don't  feature the best win rate on debut and generally improve for the run. 

Affectionate may have claims if strongly fancied in the betting but Mahmood Al Zarooni doesn't feature the best win rate with his debutantes and be watched.

Conclusion: I would be surprised if one of the form horses didn't win. Nayarra is a battling type who sets the standard and has strong win and place claims. She will probably go well but there is a slight niggle that sooner rather than later she is going to regress. I would give her the benefit of the doubt today but it is a concern. Midas Medusa is a good-looking filly who is going forward and will run a big race. Whether she is quite the class of Nayarra is open to question - probably not that much between them - but looks a fair each way bet. Ivor's Princess is a difficult filly to assess. Her weakness is that she will most likely be outpaced: her strength she could finish best of all. If betting, you may get much greater odds in running. I can see her running into a place and may even sneak a win but she will probably make your heart miss a beat or two in the process. All three have sound each way claims. The debutantes have a tall order against these experienced opponents and would need to be talented and best watched.

*Non runner

HCE: ''Interesting to see the money come for Responsive. Hughie Morrison doesn't have too many fancied juveniles but clearly a big run was expected. She always held a prominent position and Midas Medusa could never quite keep tabs. Ivor's Princess was outpaced and touched fancy prices in running before finishing well. If the ground had been more testing or a clearer passage she would most probably have won. Definitely one to keep an eye on in the future and a great in-running bet if continued at 6f.''