Tuesday 28 June 2011

6:00 Southwell (28th June) - Result

An EBF maiden over 6f.

 A mix of colts and fillies.

The form horses have been far from impressive and need to improve on what they have shown so far. However, a couple are worth noting although their respective chances are best assessed by the betting.

Rano Pano is trained by Brian Ellison, who has a decent strike rate at Southwell. This filly was thrown in the deep end when racing in the Hilary Needler at Beverley on debut. This downgraded listed race featured many talented juveniles - most winners - and this American bred, by Proud Citizen, had a very slim chance of being competitive. In truth, finishing ninth of nine doesn't look the most sparkling performance. With a month off course, stepping up in distance, and dramatically down in class, Rano Pano will find this maiden less challenging. The betting is the best guide to this juvenile's chances. If backed to 13/2 & less, she has strong place claims.

Another with a glimmer of hope is Four Richer. On form this son of Ishiguru really needs to sprout wings. However, Osbourne's two-year-olds can improve substantially from their debut. The key to this colt is the betting. If priced 13/2 & less he would have serious place claims.

Lord Ali McJones has shown moderate ability and although limited may pick up the pieces if no one turns up. It would be a surprise if he won, even though he probably sets the standard.

The debutantes are the most interesting candidates.

Vociferous catches the eye on breeding. A daughter of Street Cry out of Sander Camillio (who won the Cherry Hinton and one time leading contender for the 1,000 Guineas) could well be in a different league to these. The problem with Johnston's debutantes is that they can be very hit and miss. I find it very difficult to judge their horses when making their race course bow and for that reason it is a watching brief.

Fresha may have claims if priced 13/2 & less.

Conclusion: A tricky race. The raced juveniles need to improve to win. Rano Pano is interesting because for Ellison to send her to the Hilary Needler on debut may indicate ability. If backed to 13/2 & less, I would be quite confident that she has a leading chance. Four Richer would have strong place claims if priced 13/2 & less. Vociferous could lead these a merry dance if holding a fraction of the ability of sire or dam. This would be the juvenile at the top of my list but Johnston's debutantes classically win easily or struggle from the start.

HCE: ''The race review pointed in the right direction but although backed late on, Four Richer was still outside his best betting guide but that didn't stop him winning in style. Scrooby Doo took second (not the best looker) and Rano Pano ran on quite well for third and may be capable of better.''