Monday 20 June 2011

3:30 Wolverhampton (20th June) - Result

An EBF maiden over 5f216y for colts & fillies.

Ed Dunlop has a fine record at this course with his two-year-olds. There is little doubt Shamaal Nebris is held in some regard by connections and starting favourite for a competitive Goodwood maiden suggests a race of this nature is there for the taking. A 45,000gns breeze-up purchase, this American bred is a sizable juvenile with scope to progress. The form of that initial race looks strong with the second going on to win well at Newmarket over the weekend. This son of First Samurai has strong claims but the draw is a disadvantage. With experience, Hanagan may have the speed to sit handy but if running wide or shuffled back, it could make life hard work. At relatively short odds I would rather take a watching brief because the draw is a concern.

Beau Mistral has shown form and a consistent juvenile. She has a level of ability but perhaps a fraction below what is required to take a maiden and probably better suited to auction class. Paul Green's runner has plenty of pace and may be able to get to the rail from a wide rail but that is a matter for debate. On balance, this filly has place claims but would need the others to under perform to win.

Ed McMahon's horses are in flying form and Look Here's Lady may have claims but needs to improve markedly on her debut effort at Catterick. Starting at 3/1, would suggest a big run was expected but it didn't materialise. A slow start put pay to any hope. In ways, that race is best forgotten because this daughter of Kyllachy comes from a winning family and much better can be expected today from a decent draw and stepping up in distance. If fancied in the betting - especially if backed - there could be more to come.

Gooseberry Fool must be respected as Sir Mark Prescott has hardly put a foot wrong with his juveniles this season. All have run well and this daughter of Danehill Dancer could well be the horse to beat if strongly fancied in the betting. In general, Prescott's two-year-olds improve with racing, which tempers enthusiasm, but if the money comes I would expect a strong run.

Of the rest, Berlusca may have claims. This colt was quite well backed on debut but in truth ran no race. However, William Jarvis is a talented trainer and if backed to a single figure price could go well. The betting is the best indicator.

Conclusion: A difficult race to assess. Trying to find a balance between ability and a poor draw is never easy and the likes of Shamaal Nebris - although potentially talented - need luck in running. That rarely makes for a good bet. Beau Mistral has a level of ability and may get across from a wide draw but doesn't look good enough unless the major hopes falter. Gooseberry Fool has claims if very well backed although experience is a huge bonus on any turning course. Look Here's Lady may go well at a speculative price. Ed McMahon has been in great form and if backed could be a contender. A similar point could be made for Berlusca. However, this colt would need to be priced 15/2 & less to warrant any interest. An intriguing but difficult race.

HCE: ''The draw wasn't any great inconvenience for Shamaal Nebris who may have taken time to get into his stride but finished with some class. Flavius Victor ran creditable in second and Beau Mistral showed speed but was found wanting.''