Thursday 9 June 2011

1:50 Nottingham (9th June)

An EBF maiden over 6f15y for colt/geldings and one filly.

*Drummoyne is the proven form horse in the field. Mark Johnston's colt has been relatively fancied on both starts. This son of Street Cry progressed from his Musselburgh debut and showed good pace at Goodwood before tiring in the final furlong. The winner, Crown Dependency, is a talented juvenile, the second, Ewell Place is a capable sort, the third, Airbourne Again, has since won. On balance this chestnut has claims but may be susceptible to a fair debutante.

There are a number of interesting juveniles making their race course bow.

Sans Loi must be a very exciting juvenile for Alan McCabe and it is a sign of a talented trainer that Mrs Wentworth has paid £100,000 at the breeze-up sales for this son of Lawman. Connections have decided to take this race rather than engagements for the Coventry (Group2) & Windsor Castle (listed) at Royal Ascot. It is possible they may consider those lofty plans if successful today. With the likes of Caspar Netscher showing up well in the Woodcote at Epsom (unlucky not to go close after a tardy start and trouble in running) McCabe should have a fair line to this ones ability. Quite well backed on the exchanges, it is exciting to see the stable having the chance to train a better quality of juvenile and I for one wish them every success. An interesting two year old who may run a big race if strongly fancied in the betting.

Richard Hannon has two representatives in Daunt and Not Bad For A Boy.

Daunt is owned by Highclere Thoroughbred Racing and by all accounts should be forward being a recent breeze-up purchase for £60,000. Jamie Spencer takes the ride although whether this is a positive or a negative is a matter of opinion. He doesn't ride very often for the stable and it should be noted that Pat Dobs was originally booked to ride this colt and Not Bad For A Boy. It could well be the case he had the choice although Hannon's stable are never straightforward. Although this youngster should be fit and ready I find that many of the Highclere juveniles - unless strongly fancied in the betting - improve for the run and not overly pressed, and for that reason I would rather take a watching brief.

Not Bad For A Boy has claims - for the above reason. Hannon's juveniles feature fair win and place claims on their debut although are difficult to assess. The stable feature a decent strike race at the course and one for the short list.

Storm Belt is trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni, who had a couple of fancy winners over the weekend with Huma Bird and Falls Of Lora. This colt may appreciate running over a greater trip in time but worth noting today. The strike rate of Zarooni's debutantes is quite poor compared with Saeed Bin Suroor giving the impression their juveniles improve for the first start. A watching brief.

The betting is the best indicator to the chances of West Leake Hare & Berlusca. The former trained by Barry Hills may have place claims if priced 13/2 & less. It is interesting to note that Paul Hanagan was booked early to ride Berlusca, which may be a positive. Generally, William Jarvis doesn't feature the best strike rate with his two year olds on debut. However, they are worth a second look if priced 13/2 & less. Certainly one to keep an eye on in the betting.

Conclusion: This looks an open race. Drummoyne sets the standard but may be prone to a fair juvenile. However, many of the debutantes come from stables which do not feature the best strike race on debut. The Hannon pair are more likely than most and I would sway towards Not Bad For A boy than Daunt. Storm Belt may have claims but could well need the run if the statistics are anything to go by. The betting is the key factor for Sans Loi, West Leake Har & Berlusca. Sans Loi is most likely to run a big race and if heavily backed I would be expecting a sterling effort. Berlusca would have good win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less. A tricky race but intriguing, especially Alan McCabes debutantes which catches the eye.


HCE: ''Probably no more than an average race but a sparkling start to Sans Loi's career and connections must have been all smiles after a comprehensive victory. Whether they will be tempted to take the Royal Ascot engagement(s) would seen unlikley but ambition may take over and who knows? Exciting times.''