Tuesday 10 May 2011

2:20 Yarmouth (10th May)

A maiden over 6f 3y on good to firm ground.

A field consisting of colts and one gelding.

Dougie Boy has racecourse experience, showing sign of ability at Leicester and Southwell respectively. Turner's representative has a very pronounced knee action and you would have to be concerned that today's ground conditions may not be to this colts liking. On balance, it would be disappointing if this son of Trade Fair was capable of winning a full maiden (rather than an auction which seems more fitting).

Similar comments can be made for Darnathean who finished behind Dougie Boy on debut. Paul D'Arcy is a talented trainer - often over looked. He had a fair two-year-old run at Ascot over the weekend and may have a better string of juveniles this season. The above mentioned gelding showed very good pace at Southwell and will probably travel well for much of this race. Darnathean tired in the final furlong, which may have been due to needing the run or simply his level of ability. The application of the blinkered may rev up this son of Librettist even more. Breeding suggests he may appreciate this 6f although I would rather take a watching brief.

The other form horse, Topcoat, hails from Mark Jonhston's stable. He was relatively fancied in the betting on debut but didn't show much ability. It is a positive that the stable's two-year-olds have come into form this month and if in need of the run on debut and appreciating this extra furlong there may be more to come. The only runner Johnston's sent to the course, although their juvenile strike rate at Yarmouth is poor. If priced 13/2 & less Topcoat may have place claims. However, improvement is needed.

This race is likely to revolve around the debutantes - especially Samminder & Pickled Pelican.

Samminder is trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam who needs little introduction with his juveniles. He is one of few trainers who feature a better win rate with his fancied debutantes than two-year-olds on their second start.This tells one thing - they are usually fit and ready. Out of a multiple winning mare, this son of Red Ransom is one for the short list. It is worth noting that Jack Mitchell was originally booked to ride but now heads to Warwick (one for Chapple-Hyam 4th 14/1, slightly unlucky). Clearly, that in itself may be a pointer to Here To Eternity in the 5:10 Warwick, especially if Samminder wins today. The late switch of booking is a slight concern regarding this juvenile although the betting on the exchanges suggests a big run. At short odds I would rather watch and learn.

The jockey booking of Jim Crowley is similarly perplexing for Pickled Pelican trained by William Haggis. Crowley is a rare booking for the stable and whether this is a positive or negative only time will tell. Juveniles priced 13/2 & less on debut only feature a moderate win and often much better on their second start. 

Robert Mills is represented by Rock Canyon a 30,000gns purchase by Rock Of Gibraltar. The stable have a poor win rate on debut and breeding suggests a greater trip may be needed. The betting is always worth noting with this stable and the owner had a major gamble on Ewell Place when second at Goodwood. On balance, this juvenile will improve for the experience.

Conclusion: The most proven form comes from Dougie Boy but one or two may be better. Turner's youngster has such a pronounced running action he is unlikely to be suited by today's fast ground. Samminder ticks many boxes and has best claims to win. Chapple-Hyam has his two-year-old fit and ready which adds to his merit. The fact that Mitchell has gone to Warwick rather than take this ride is a concern. A difficult race to have any strong views and a watching brief.

HCE: ''Samminder looked professional winning in comfortable fashion after a reminder or two. Pickled Pelican looks the sort to improve with racing and Rock Canyon is likely to go well next time out. Dougie Boy was unsuited by the ground.''