Saturday 2 April 2011

3:40 Doncaster (2nd April) - Result

For HCE the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes is the start of the Flat turf season. It is very disappointing to see the win prize money of £6,476.00 - last year it was nearly £12,000. The field is slightly down on previous years and I can only hope the quality hasn't evaporated, too.

So who is going to win this year's race?

It is intriguing to see how the form horses fair against the unraced. They clearly have an edge on fitness and race experience. But will this be enough to give them the edge over what could be a few talented debutantes?

Redair - trained by David Evans - ran out a tidy winner over Bubbly Ballerina and He's So Cool at Kempton in the first two-year-old race of the season. Redair wandered about in the closing stages but seemed to be getting the hang of what was asked by the line. A compact filly, this daughter of Redback carries a 4lb penalty. A proven winner is no bad starting place in a race full of mostly debutantes and one for the short list although she may have her work cut out against one or two colts.

Bubbly Ballerina* ran a fine  race at Kempton. Bailey's youngsters is quite an athletic sort and not the strongest at this stage (Redair is more attractive). Declan Cannon gave her a good race and she has plenty of speed and is likely to be up with the pace but looks held by Redair.

The Brocklesby is very much a race of tradition for many trainers and especially Bill Turner. He has triumphed in this race a number of times and others have gone close to winning. Generally, he sends his best two-year-old and He's So Cool may not be a forlorn hope even though - on the face of it - this bay colt was beaten by over seven length by Redair. This son of One Cool Cat was 5/4f that day, which is a very short price for one of Turner's and I imagine better was expected. He didn't look to handle the bend at Kempton - which is very long - and became adrift, before making headway in the final two furlongs. Whether he is capable of bridging such a gap is a matter for debate. However, I think He's So Cool will run a much better race today.

Another trainer to note is Richard Fahey who has a wealth of two-year-old horses. He has a good record in the Brocklesby and I would be confident Our Boy Jack will be winning in his juvenile career. It is never easy to give away experience and those with form should be respected. However, of the unraced, I can see this bay colt running well from a high draw.

Kevin Ryan got off the mark yesterday with his tidy Musselburgh winner Hamza. Jimmy The Lollipop a  £27,000 yearling by Amadeus Wolf  is worth noting in the betting. Most of Ryan's 2yo winners are priced 7/1 & less. Money is always a positive with this stable although he doesn't feature the greatest strike rate on debut and is a difficult trainer to judge.

Of the rest, Tyre Giant Dot Com is an early runner for Geoff Oldroyd and Reg Bond. This gelding is out of a precious mare. A watching brief.

In conclusion: Redair is likely to run a big race but may find one or two colts tougher opposition today. Richard Fahey's Our Boy Jack is more than likely to have ability but it is never easy to win on debut. However, I can see this colt running well. The dark horse might just be He's So Cool. Many people will skip past Bill Turner's colt after being beaten easily by Redair but he has a tradition of going very well in the Brocklesby and there may be more to come.

A watching race for me.