Monday 4 April 2011

2:40 Windsor (4th April) - Result

Quite an interesting race.

Richard Hannon won this race last year with the talented Zebedee. Lord Of The Shadows is unlikely to attain such dizzy height although trainers are people of habit and it would be a brave man to suggest this 70,000gns son of Kyllachy doesn't have ability. One of our readers, Neil, noted that in recent years Hannon's youngsters - when priced 11/4 & less - attained a 40% win rate. Those figures alone show why Hannon is a dominant force with his two year olds. The downside: debutantes have their own way of doing things. A short price doesn't guarantee a straightforward performance. A leading chance but not my kind of bet at restrictive odds.

Sea Odyssey is an early runner for Barry Hills costing 65,000gns as a yearling. The stable feature a fair win rate at Windsor although fancied debutantes do not have the best win percentages and more likely to be placed.

There has already been a sign that Silverheels has ability - an entry for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. However, Paul Cole decided to take this option. This son of Verglas cost 30,000gns as a yearling and should be respected. In previous years, Cole's early two year olds have attained a winning level of ability. His strike rate at Windsor in quite poor but the betting is the key to this ones chances. Very few of his juveniles win on debut when priced bigger than 8/1. Silverheels is likely to have ability but may be a better proposition next time.

Ralph Beckett is an intriguing trainer because he can win at just about any price with his juveniles. Tango Sky has been backed on the exchanges and it will be interesting to see if this money is sustained throughout the day. Beckett is a difficult trainer to assess from individual to individual but certainly capable of winning with his debutantes. Probably best watched.

Rod Millman's youngsters rarely win on debut. However, Garrarufa is worth noting for the future. A relatively cheap purchase he is a full brother to Roi De Vitesse. If he takes after his sibling, he will be running a big race on his second start.

David Evans has got off to a flying start with his two year olds. As usual, there is something to talk about with his runners here. Ciara Boo & Seven Year Itch are an intriguing pair. They were both meant to run on debut at Kempton but the latter was a late withdrawal. It is interesting to note that Seven Year Itch was much more fancied in the betting than Ciara Boo on that occasion. On the early declarations for this race, Gannon was originally booked to ride Seven Year Itch but now switches to the other mount. In many respects, she probably had the pick and may have plumped for Ciara Boo because she has experience on side. However, it is intriguing to consider the tissue prices at Kempton, which suggested Seven Year Itch was the better. As usual, the betting will tell the story with Evans.

HCE: ''A decent performance from the Brocklesby-entered Silverheels. For much of the way - due to inexperience - he didn't look the likely winner but ran on in determined fashion. He was ridden like a fit horse and Cole's stable must have been quite optimistic. Lord Of The Shadows is a good looking colt and ran well. Another day, he would have won but this was a fair race. He was given a considerate introduction. The same can be said for Sea Odyssey who travelled best of these and has a good cruising speed. Hills' youngster will improve for the run. Both placed horses should go on to win.''