Wednesday 30 March 2011

6:00 Wolverhampton (30th March) - Result

A restricted maiden auction for fillies costing £21000 or less. Considering the most expensive in the field, Aquasulis, cost 7000euros it is likely most of these individuals will be limited.

David Evans is represented by Aquasulis and Jettie. After winning the first two-year-old race of the season with Redair, his next few runners are likely to be in the spotlight and potentially under priced. Cathy Gannon was booked early to ride the former, so preference goes with the daughter of Titus Livius, although the betting will be the best indicator.

One of the trainers more likely to win on debut is Kevin Ryan, who has Hannagan booked to ride Nannerl. The mare, Orpendonna, was in the same ownership. In recent years, Ryan has been slightly disappointing considering he has a large string of juveniles. He always finds one or two decent prospects but many of his 2yo seem limited. Very few of his juveniles win when priced over 7/1 on debut and although credited as a trainer who can win on debut, his general strike rate is average. Although one of the more hopeful candidates this looks a race to tread careful.

Of the others, Queen Of The Hop cost 1,000gns. Stan Moore is a capable 2yo trainer. However, he doesn't have the best strike rate on debut and his juveniles generally run much better on their second start.

Early Ambition comes from a trainer (Andrew Haynes) who has juvenile winners on debut but is a difficult trainer to judge. Even though a cheap buy, her owners Diamond Racing Ltd are quite a canny outfit and one to note if heavily backed.

Mousie is one of the most interesting runners in the field for one reason - she had an entry for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. Clearly, running here, McCabe is taking an easier option and it could well be the case that this daughter of Auction House is limited. The major negative is that McCabe rarely wins on debut and for that reason there would need to be a lot of money for this runner to give any confidence. It is also intriguing why Robert Winston isn't riding, as he was booked in the early declarations. It might be the case that he would struggle to do the weight although he does ride at 8-3. As Nicky Mackay was booked to ride her in the Brocklesby, perhaps it is just a factor of McCabe being loyal.

Dijarvo is worth noting in the betting, although Tony Carroll doesn't have many two-year-olds win on debut.

A very difficult race to have any strong views and many of these will soon be running in plating class. This race looks to be a seller in everything but name.

A watching race.