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Tuesday, 21 December 2010

Tuesday's Thoughts

1:35 Southwell

Just the one race today - a maiden over 7f. The general mix of disappointing horses and two debutantes. With such limited ability it is difficult to come to any strong conclusions. Elusive Love is priced about even money at present but whether this extra furlong will bring about further improvement is a matter of debate. I would rather watch than bet at such restricted odds. Songjiang represents John Gosden's stable which has a high strike rate at the course (56% win rate in the last five years from nine runners). The betting will be the key to this colt by Tiger Hill. A marked drift in the betting would not bode well. So Is She has had plenty of chances over a number of distances but never looks the most willing of candidates and not one to have much confidence about. Mazovian and Szabo's Destiny are very closely matched on their last performance at Southwell over this distance. The former trained by Michael Chapman has travelled well in his races and could trade at shorter odds in running although it is likely Elusive Love will dictate the pace which may negate this angle. In conclusion, if strongly fancied in the betting, Songjiang has strong claims. Elusive Love is likely to set the pace while Mazovian has place claims and price to chance the most appealing but a tentative selection.

Today's race:
1:35 Southwell