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Monday, 4 October 2010

Monday's Thoughts

With soft and heavy ground conditions across today's meetings it makes picking winners all the more difficult. With so few two-year-olds with proven soft-ground form - it may be prudent to look for the one wearing Wellington boots or as my dad used to say 'has hooves the size of dinner plates'.

3:20 Warwick
A watching race but Zenella, trained by Anne Duffield, is a talented juvenile. This 6f, even in soft ground, may be on the short side and with a stiff handicap mark could find this a challenge. But there is a lot to like about this filly and it would be no surprise to see her gain black type at some point in her career.

3:30 Windsor
Quite an intriguing race. Choral was a disappointment last time at Newmarket when Hughes employed holding-up tactics which gave little chance of being competitive. The form of her earlier effort at Kempton had looked decent but has since been a little difficult to assess. It will be interesting to see how Hughes rides today. Being the only filly (and on the small side) against a field full of colts on soft ground conditions is a concern. Trend cost 60,000gns and an attractive gelding. This son of Marju was very inexperienced on debut and found himself at the back of the field on a day it paid to be up with the pace. This Highclere-owned juvenile could improve for that initial start and has proven soft ground form. It is difficult to quantify what this youngster achieved at Yarmouth and more will be needed today. Bell has quite impressive statistics with his juveniles when fancied on their second start and one of the more likelier types. Another Laugh had run respectably over 6f considering he is bred to appreciate much further and showed improved form when running over 1m at Bath. That race is difficult to assess in ways. However, Hills gelding gave favourite backers of Dux Scholar a scare for a furlong or two and that horse trained by Sir Michael Stoute is a decent prospect. It is a matter of trying to establish how easy a victory that was but Another Laugh is progressing and could be the one to beat. One to consider at a price is Buxfizz. Mills does well with his juveniles and this colt - a breeze-up purchase of 70,000gns - was well backed in what turned out to be a decent maiden at Lingfield. This son of Elusive Quality has been off course for a while and it may be the case he didn't give his true running that day. If backed, it would be a sign of encouragement.

3:50 Warwick
A restricted auction race and by all accounts a poor race. Crucis Abbey has enough ability to win a small race and Unett's colt has battling qualities. This extra furlong may bring about improvement but the soft ground is something of an unknown. A tentative selection.

Today's races:
2:10 Pontefract
2:40 Pontefract
2:50 Warwick
3:20 Warwick
3:30 Windsor
3:50 Warwick
4:00 Windsor
4:30 Windsor