Sunday 15 August 2010

2:10 Pontefract

A maiden over 5f.

Lexi's Hero has been placed on all five starts and connections will be hoping this is 6th time lucky. To be fair Ryan's two-year-old has done little wrong and bumped into a number of talented juveniles along the way. This bay colt by Invincible Spirit has enough ability to win a maiden and will no doubt make a bold bid to go one better today. The high draw shouldn't be a problem although it isn't ideal especially if having to race wide on the bend. Lexi's Hero is the horse to beat although always prone.

Jack Smudge ran in a fair race at Ayr over 6f, when looking rather inexperienced and wandered under pressure. Quite a tall colt, he may be on the weak side and it is debatable whether this drop to 5f will be to his advantage and may be outpaced by some of these nippier types. Given's doesn't feature very good win or place statistics with his fancied runners on their second start and for that reason it may pay to be careful with this two-year-old.

Michael Dods has not been in form for a while, however Reachtothestars is an interesting runner. After showing promise at Thirsk, this American-bred colt by Silver Train was heavily backed at Carlisle but ran a disappointing race. As it turned out, that was a very good race and it is a possibility Dods' two-year-old simply ran its race. With having such a long time off course it is more likely there was a problem and it will be interesting to see if this youngster is backed once more. This is something of a recovery mission after the Carlisle running and with so many uncertainties it is probably best to watch today.

Novalist is worth a second glance in what may turn out to be a weak race. Bastiman's gelding is probably no more that a modest performer but he is a battler and has the experience and speed to sit handy. The run at Beverely seemed a little lacklustre but may have shown his limitations being behind the likes of Saltergate, although it is worth noting the 5th has since won a poor race. Bastiman has employed Callan to ride today who has a good win rate for the trainer and at a price Novalist has fair place claims although may struggle to win. Pontefract benefits horses with experience and this could be a key factor regarding his chances.

Of the debutantes Richard Fahey's Podgies Boy must be respected. The trainer has achieved high win and place rates with his fancied juveniles on their racecourse bow and the betting will be informative. As stated above, inexperience can be costly on this turning course and a slow start could make this a challenge. Podgies Boy has a relatively wide draw which isn't ideal. A difficult horse to assess but should be respected if backed.

Lexi's Hero is the horse to beat and has a leading chance although prone to a fair debutante or determined form horse. Novalist has a fair chance of a place but may need the favourite to falter to get his head in front. Reachtothestars is the dark horse of the race but has a few question marks after the Carlisle disappointment and may be best watched today.

Other race:
2:30 Bath