Sunday 12 July 2009

7:20 Wolverhampton (13th July)

A restricted auction race over this extended 5f(216y).

This doesn't look out of many with two main contenders being Il Forno and Lucky Rave.

Il Forno is stepping up in distance after putting up a decent effort over 5f last time. Nicholls' juvenile has enough ability to go close in this race and from a low draw will probably try to make all. A fair sort for this level and should go well.

Lucky Rave is certainly a capable juvenile and always travels well but seems to struggle to finish his race, often tiring in the last half furlong. Brown's two-year-old hasn't got the best draw and it will be interesting if this colt can get in a decent position. It is possible that Spencer may try to holding-up tactics and save a bit for a finish. The main worry would be trying to get to the front and failing, being forced to run wide. It is worth noting that Lucky Rave got rather hot last time when running at Carlise, although run well, and was hanging throughout. It may be the case that a turning track isn't ideal and may not be enjoying racing. Certainly, if this juvenile looks temperamental it would be a negative. This two-year-old is not the easiest to assess and struggling to finish a race is never a good point. Saying that, in a poor race, Lucky Rave may not be pressed and run well. I would imagine he will be going well until the last half furlong and that will be the deciding point.

Listollo showed good speed last time over course and distance but the form doesn't look anything special. Dunlop's juvenile may have a chance however I think this colt by More Than Ready still has something to prove.

Valkov is a cheap purchase (£952) and although Dascombe has been flying high this season, it would be a great purchase to go well here. The booking of Richard Smith doesn't appeal either.

I think this is out of Il Forno and Lucky Rave. The latter is probably the better of the two although Brown's juvenile could well struggle with the draw and may falter in the last half furlong. Il Forno is the more guaranteed to run a race. Difficult to pick between the two.

A watching race.

Race review: 'This looked a two-horse race for much of the way with Il Forno and Listillo blazing away up front. In the end Listillo won that battle but couldn't cope with the late challenge of Lucky Rave who appreciated these holding-up tactic and Spencer gave this juvenile a very good ride, playing to strengths. The rest didn't do much. Il Forno may have not got the 6f but even saying that has something to prove after this poor running.'