Thursday 16 July 2009

2:00 Newbury (17th July)

A maiden fillies' race over 6f8y.

A large field with a mix of raced juveniles and many making their debuts.

Deloria ran on well when second behind Full Mandate at Newbury. Eve Johnson Houghton is a very capable trainer who, like her father, has trained top-class juveniles. This filly has been entered for the Lowther Stakes Group 2, which certainly catches the eye. The winner won with plenty in hand that day and the third has disappointed next time when stepping up in distance to compete in a nursery, so the form is somewhat unproven.

Roger Charlton has had a quiet season so far with his juveniles and Love Match ran with an element of promise on debut. The form of that race has taken a few knocks since but you always have to be careful with this trainer's juveniles as they can improve immensely on their second start. The betting will tell the story for this filly and if she is backed or relatively short priced then a big run should be expected.

There was much to like about Itwasonlyakiss on her second start when just failing to beat Above Limits who is a fair juvenile. Since this fillies disappointing effort at Royal Ascot, she has been given an entry for the Lowther and could well be suited by this step up to 6f. It is always a slight worry when a horse disappoints but few are good enough to win at the highest level and for that reason we have to trust that she is as good as her Sandown second. With being trained by a less fashionable handler, I can imagine there will be opportunity to gain respectable odds. Quite often the form horses are gambled before the off, especially if the unraced have a few doubts. This filly must have a decent chance if running her race.

The betting will be the best guide to those making their debuts. A number of these are worth mentioning as there are a few expensive juveniles and elite trainers.

Conniption cost 225,000gns and must be respected. Meehan has a pretty poor win rate on debut and unless this filly is a short price I wouldn't expect a win today. His best two-year-olds can show a good deal of ability, however, they are usually primed for their second start. It is worth noting that Vanishing Grey was entered to run, but doubtful, and she would have been first string which implies this daughter of Danehill Dancer will need the outing.

Tranvaal Sky would be interesting if supported in the market.

Henry Cecil is a superb trainer and Walk On Water could well have ability. It has be noticeable that the majority of his juveniles win on their second start and often fail at short prices on debut.

It is always possible a classy filly could appear from the debutantes but it is never easy to attain a level of fair form horses or match their experience. Deloria, Love Match and Itwasonlyakiss set a decent mark and it would be no surprise to see one of these take this race. Love Match has most to prove but would figure much better if backed. Deloria ran on well and although unproven, has the potential to run a big race. Itwasonlyakiss has proven a level of ability behind Above Limits and if the Royal Ascot disappointment wasn't a sign of regressing then a Hills' filly could run a race at a decent price. In a large field there is always a concern there may be a surprise or two, but that is the nature of such races.

A watching race.

Deloria (NR)
Itwasonlyakiss (NR)
Walkingonwater (NR)

Race review: 'As the rain fell and non-runners withdrew aplenty, the complexion of this races changed markedly. Conniption won this well and could be a promising juvenile. All I can say is that if this is the second string then I want to see the first! (Vanishing Grey, who I am sure is a very talented juvenile is one to watch out for). Difficult to know what this race equates too at this time but Zubova and Cash Queen Anna ran well. Love Match travelled well and looked to have a fair chance but struggled to finish the race. It may be the case that these testing conditions were just too much to cope.'