Wednesday 24 June 2009

2:15 Warwick (25th June)

A restricted auction race over 5f.

Clive Cox's Reddy To Star has gone close to winning on his last three runs but I wonder if it will be fourth time unlucky again. This well balanced horse has an element of speed but is there to be shot at once more. I wouldn't back this juvenile.

Tucker's Law has shown an element of ability in ways but on the other side of the coin has proven little. This may be a poor race but I still consider Millman's juvenile will struggle to win this.

Henry Candy is a very talented trainer and one I respect, especially in auction events with two-year-olds. This relatively cheap purchase is probably best assessed by the betting. In addition, Candy doesn't have a very good win rate on debut and this will be a handicap against the more experienced types over this speedy track.

Mdawee comes from a trainer quite capable of winning on debut and someone who has done very well with his runners at Warwick this season. If this juvenile is backed it would be a very good sign because Dascombe has plenty of talented two-year-olds and they know what it takes to win a race.

I think on her day Fenella Rose is a talented juvenile - but also a very temperamental one. An attractive filly by Compton Place, she will make many of these look quite ugly. Many of her supporters will be hoping she doesn't turn ugly herself by being awkward to go in the stalls or throw the towel in when pressed as she seemed to be at Leicester. At her best she must have enough ability to run a very big race here but her character leaves a lot to be desired and all too often temperamental horses never fulfill their initial promise. If you bet, you will be hoping for her to have a good day. Not the easiest of circumstances to make a bet. The classic if you bet she loses and if you don't she wins. It's a dilemma.

A difficult race in ways. Most of the form horses seem to have good reasons for losing, which is different. I will be watching with interest. I would need a decent price to even start thinking about betting here. A fascinating race.

A watching race.

Race review: 'Only three juveniles ever featured here and another winner for Tom Dascombe with Mdawee. Reddy To Star ran his typical race and found one too good. He has just about enough ability to win an auction event but is so on the edge of that level that there's always one that little better. Fenella Rose was very weak on the exchanges then very well backed late on. More holding-up tactics were employed today and she came with a decent effort but Atzeni (jockey) seemed to find problems by trying to go through a gap that was never there. A shame he didn't take the inside route. I doubt she was have been quite good enough to win although a chance would have been a positive.'