Sunday 26 April 2009

2:10 Brighton

In many ways this doesn't look the strongest of contests. Mick Channon has a good record in this race and Nadeen is fancied in the betting. Clearly this colt wouldn't have to be the most talented juvenile to win although inexperience is a concern as Channon's win rate with all of his two-year-olds on debut is far from impressive.

True Red seemingly ran better last time at Bath. I don't think the form of that race is anything special and this filly is rather small. She has an element of speed but she may struggle to finish this stiffer trip. McLaughlin (jockey) will probably try to make her experience count and gain an early lead. I think she faces a stiff task and needs this to turn into a poor race to gain that elusive win.

Safari Camp is a lovely looking colt. Well backed on debut, racing with the lead for a long way before fading badly in the final furlong. The Folkestone race has worked out well, in the sense that Hannon's juvenile, the winner, has a good level of ability, but significant improvement is needed here. This colt may have had an excuse on debut or needed the run. It is certainly interesting that this juvenile was well backed and perhaps he deserves another chance. Peter Winkworth's juveniles have very good win and place statistics on their second start at the tissue price advertised so I will certainly be watching with interest.

Flap Jack didn't impress at Windsor and to be honest looks very slow. She will need a transformation to figure here.

One juvenile of interest at big odds could be the Simon Dow-trained Curtains. A recent purchase at the breeze-up sales and Seb Sanders booked to ride at the five-day declarations: this could be a positive sign. Dow has had a few capable two-year-olds in his day although in recent years he hasn't achieved too much success. From the Horses In Training 2009 he has one two-year-old in training, so this late addition may have caught his eye. Money for this filly would add to the encouragement.

A watching race.

Race review: 'Probably not the greatest race but an exciting finish nonetheless with Nadeen prevailing from Little Perisher to win by a head. True Red led and was soon struggling at the furlong pole. Safari Camp doesn't seem to finish his races. Flapjack ran better than on debut but this may simply be a reflection of a poor race. Curtains may have won on another day. She was far too inexperienced and then was crossed by Flapjack before running down the middle of the course and making great strides towards the finish. Dow's juvenile will be much wiser on his next start and likely to find a race this season.'