2:30 Ascot - Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) Free Horse Racing Tips

Bapak Chinta: Winner 2011 Norfolk Stakes
 Group 2 
A smaller field for this selection of colts on good ground over 5f at Royal Ascot.

An exciting race.

This Royal Ascot, Qatar Racing Ltd have been flashing the cash with their two-year-old purchases. In fact, they must have spent a near fortune buying a selection of potentially talented juveniles but all have failed to make a show. However, their fortunes may change with Ahern and Cape Verde.

Ahern ran a cracking race to beat winning opposition at Musselburgh on his debut. David Barron is a master trainer but even I was surprise with the these this son of Dutch Art proved victorious. The style he disposed of Satsuma, who finished seventh in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2), indicates a class act. This £80,000 breeze-up purchase didn't show any sign of inexperience on his racecourse bow and I suspect he will be equally professional in this stiffer competition. I was impressed by this colt. These races are rarely straightforward but a good each way bet.

Cay Verde has been on an upwards spiral since running no more than a fair race on debut. Mick Channon has spoken in glowing terms of this son of Bahamian Bounty since beating Hototo, who went on to win the Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed). He then crossed the Irish channel taking the Marble Hill Stakes (Listed) at the Currugh in comfortable fashion. His strength is the way he finishes his races and he could take some stopping. 

It would be good to see Qatar Racing Ltd have a couple of bold shows here in return for their substantial interest in British racing.

Richard Hannon is represented by two horses. Annunciation has Hughes in the saddle. Finishing second to Euxton Hall & Reckless Abandon before winning in style at Windsor illustrated this bay colt has a level of ability but also some limitation. On balance, he will need to improve a good deal to beat Clive Cox's Reckless Abandon. This son of Exchange Rate (USA) ran in a strong auction maiden stakes at Doncaster. A number of juveniles - some way off the lead - have since shown ability. This March foal wasn't stopping at the line and beating Annunciation by a couple of length provides a measure of a talented juvenile. Cox left viewers in little doubt the team expected a winning debut when interviewed on ATR and they clearly had this race on the agenda. He has the potential to be a superb talent and one for the short list.

A number of the field are lightly raced and shown a level of ability.

Roger Varian has been in fine form with his debuatntes this season and Morawij ran well at Haydock over 6f to steal a win in the closing stages. Perhaps he was a little ring rusty that day, but it was noticeable this son of Exceed And Excel took time to warm to his task and this drop in distance may just be a little on the sharp side. Experience often brings horses on a good deal so that might be something and nothing to concern his supporters. However, it would be enough to temper my enthusiasm.

Storm Moon ran well early season looking a smart colt with two wins under his belt. The Johnston juveniles seemed to be on a high at that time but he suffered a poor defeat at Sandown when contesting the National Stakes (Listed). In truth, Joe Fanning gave him a crazy ride, as he and Bailey's Jubilee hared-off at such a pace it was no surprise they crumpled in the final furlong - spent forces. It is worth noting that this colt did get a little warm that day and seemed somewhat unsettled. He most certainly needs an excuse for that effort to figure here. In hindsight, perhaps the form of those earlier contests has been surpassed. With fears of regression, it is best to take a watching brief.

Mister Marc, is difficult to assess, but time may tell he is a quality juvenile. Racing over 6f on both starts, he is another who may find the pace of this minimum trip pretty hot although he is a pacey sort. After a stylish win at Goodwood - always a prime starting point for a Hannon juvenile - he was second to subsequent Coventry Stakes (Group 2) winner Dawn Approach. With Jim Bolger's talent making it four victories in a row, it would be foolish to knock this youngster for being beaten just over two lengths. It is hard to get a handle on this colt but he is worthy of respect and could be the dark horse.

Gale Force Ten ran on well at the Currugh in testing condition to beat Leitir Mor by just under one length. That colt ran creditably in the Coventry to finish seventh beaten a similar number of lengths. This drop in distance doesn't look ideal and everything may happen too quickly.

Of the others, Ian's Dream is a good, strong colt with a rather pronounced knee action perhaps best suiting some give underfoot. Jeremy Noseda is a class trainer and this $220,000 yearling purchase is likely to improve for that racecourse bow. However, the form of that race has its limitations and other are favoured.

Jubilee Brig was most deserving of his recent victory after finishing behind some talented juveniles in the shape Ceiling Kitty - Queen Mary Stakes Group 2 winner -  and Bungleinthejungle who went on to finish a gallant second in the Windsor Castle (Listed). Moore's colt may run better than his odds and the type to finish with some purpose if given a patient ride.

Ocean Applause ran better in the National Stakes Listed at Sandown but needs to step up markedly to figure.

While Alan McCabe makes a quick return with *Complicator after making his debut at York. He is a good-looking colt with size and scope to progress with racing and showed up for a moment of two before tiring as if needing the run. He should be fitter and enjoy this better ground but would need a minor miracle to win.

Conclusion: A fascinating race and a pleasant surprise to see a smaller field rather than these huge cavalry charges which often spoil the racing spectacle. A number of these two-year-olds are dropping in distance which could be something of a rude awakening for some. Ahern really impressed me on debut at Musselburgh. In fact, I would go so far to so that it was a sparkling victory. He left smart filly Satsuma trailing and that is the mark of a classy juvenile. Reckless Abandon was another eye catcher who disposed of Annunciation with a stylish win at Doncaster. If anything he had only just started to lengthen his stride. That was a very good debut with the promise of much more. A leading light.  Cape Verde is progressing with his racing and the type of composed horse which isn't going to be sucked into a speed dual. Finishing races is key and he is a fair juvenile if not needing to improve to win this. Mister Marc didn't lack for pace when behind subsequent Coventry Stakes (Group 2) winner, Dawn Approach. This drop to the minimum distance may be a plus although he is difficult to assess in ways. Potentially the dark horse of the race. Ahern & Reckless Abandon would be my idea of fair each way bets.

*NR

4 comments:

Neil said...

Looking forward to this one. 1st race of my in-person Royal Ascot cherrypop! Going to see what the market does and plump for Ahern or Reckless Abandon. If its a close call I will go for Ahern, just because the ground was softer last time out and it is going to tip it down tomorrow!

HCE said...

Yes, I'm looking forward to them running. Exciting race. I hope Ahern goes well because he looks potentially a class act. Interest. Have a good day.

Neil said...

Hi there

Had a good day - we went for both in the end and Reckless Abandon paid for the next couple of rounds of drinks!

Neil

HCE said...

Hi Neil,

I was hoping you got the winner so pleased to hear you went for both.