2:20 Kempton (5th April) - Result

Disappointing to see a small field for this restricted maiden auction.

Richard Hannon has run a couple of juveniles this season but not had a winner. That will soon change. Mrs Mop, a daughter of Amadeus Wolf, is likely to go off favourite and has a leading chance.

That's Dangerous is the first two-year-old runner from Roger Charlton's stable. This is what Charlton has to say about his representative:

'' I don't have many early two-year-old types in the yard but one of my Doncaster Sales purchases (9000gns) is ready for his first outing in the 2.20pm at Kempton this afternoon. I was attracted to That's Dangerous at the sales as he was a great walker and looked like his sire Three Valleys (USA) who, it should be remembered, beat the two-year-old course record previously held by Mill Reef when he won The Coventry Stakes in a canter in 2003. Sadly That's Dangerous will never be as good as his sire who was 'brilliant ' but he's a tough,good moving colt who hasn't missed a days exercise since August. He will be suited by going up in distance in the future as he has plenty of stamina from both sides of his pedigree. His half brother by Mujahid won 3 races in Italy and was placed in a Listed race over 12 furlongs and his dam St Edith was by Desert King who won The Irish Derby.''

In general, Charlton's juveniles improve for their debut run but his relatively fancied runners still maintain a fair win rate. In such a small field there is always a slight concern individuals are forced into such betting guides and a horse I would rather watch.

The main reason for my initial disappointment of such a small field is because Snowed In - trained by Stan Moore - could have been a good, speculative bet. Sadly, with few juveniles in opposition, this rather scuppers this chance. This gelding by Dark Angel was clueless on debut. However, there may be good reason to hold some optimism. Interestingly, this juvenile was one of two entrants for the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. That point alone is worth noting. Moore has done very well with similarly entered juveniles in previous seasons and it would be no surprise to see a much-improved performance. At 5/1 or so, it isn't really an attractive betting proposition.

Last of the four runners is Multi Blessing. Alan Jarvis has a poor strike rate with his debutantes but he is a capable trainer and should be noted if substantially backed .

HCE: ''A messy race with Multi Blessing hampering Mrs Mop at the start. Snowed In improved from debut and was slightly hampered in the home straight but ran on well to hold the persistent challenge of That's Dangerous who didn't help his cause by a tardy start.'' 


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

decent analysis of the race, pity the field had not been bigger as it looks like your potential spec bet was up to the job. you clearly know your area very well. looking forward to more "under the counter bets "as i call them.heres to a profitable season.