Probability Equals Horse Racing Betting Profit or Loss and a Way to Find Good Bets

What is the secret of making money betting on horse races? Like any other investment, it is the probability of a positive outcome. The probability of a horse winning a race and making a profit can be described as risk versus rewards. With any financial investment, the amount of risk should be weighed against the reward.

In plain English, if a horse will win often enough at the current odds to regain all money wagered along with a profit, then it is a positive bet. So as a handicapper you are really shopping for a good deal. That is the secret of making money at the horse races. It really is no secret, though how you can actually manage to reliably place a fair odds figure on each runner may seem incredibly difficult or even obscure.


It starts with realizing that all races are not the same. The age of the hroses, investment of the owner, quality of the stock, all play a part in determining how difficult it is to figure out what they're worth. The horse racing pools are an open market. Anyone can place a bet. You could say that a horse race is an example of democracy in action. It is therefore no wonder that political races are often described as, "A real Horse Race."


Once you determine which races are the easiest to figure out, the next step is to weigh each factor. In other words, let's say you have decided that claiming races for older horses are the easiest to handicap because all the runners have been tested at the distance and surface and have shown their recent form and ability. Your next step is to find out how important their average speed is compared to other factors.


How often does the horse with the highest average speed win the race? How often does the second fastest horse win, etc.? Once you've figured that out by keeping score over a hundred races or more, the next step is to check on class, jockey trainer teams, etc. Find the most important factor(s) and weight them. Then look at the runners in today's race and give each one a score.


Subtract the take out from 100%. For instance, if the takeout is 18%, round it up to 20% to cover the breakage and that leaves 80%. Now divide that 80% (the actual amount of the win pool that will be returned to the bettors) by the number of runners. Let's say there are 8 runners. That means that if all conditions and runners were the same and won an equal number of times, they would each have a chance to win 10% of the pool. That is the actual amount that would be returned to the winners.


Obviously, not all runners have equal ability. Look at the weighted factors and make adjustments to the 10% that each horse is assigned. You now have a morning line you can use to determine the fair odds of each horse. With practice you'll refine it even more and learn to make a profit from spotting good bets.



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About the Author



If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.



Author: Bill Peterson

2 comments:

Mark said...

Hi Jason

Another great post, I have really enjoyed reading this series of articles. Thanks for posting them up.

The advice Bill Peterson is giving for free is priceless to me.

I hope you've got plenty more!

Keep up the good work
Mark

HCE said...

Hi Mark,

Yes, Bill knows his stuff without doubt. I like his thinking so he is a credit to HCE and his articles are much appreciated.

Regards,
Jason