6:30 Carlise

A restricted auction race over 5f.

This looks a prime opportunity for Electric Waves, after a promising debut at Windsor. A number of winners have come from that race and McMahon's two-year-old will come on a lot for that debut. After taking time to get into her stride, this daughter of Exceed And Excel steadily narrowed that deficit without being pressed. That experience could make all the difference today.

Howard Johnson has maintained a cracking strike rate here in the last five years for his youngsters (44% win rate) and for that reason alone Solo Whisper should be respected. The most expensive in the field, the betting should be a fair indicator of his chances. In general, this trainer doesn't have a very good win rate with his debutantes.

Choose Wisely, trained by Karl Ryan, was thrown in the deep end when showing limited ability in a Stakes race on debut. A good, strong bodied colt he ran much better at Catterick when suffering interference in the closing stages. The third that day, Melodize, has since disappointed and it is questionable what level of ability this juvenile has. On looks you would have to be encouraged but not the easiest to assess at present although this race is hardly the strongest on paper.

The interestingly named Hayley Cropper is worth noting for any moves in the betting. Nicholls has a fair place rate on debut and juveniles are often ready to run a big race on debut.

Other races:
2:30 nottingham
3:10 Musselburgh

4 comments:

The Racing Detective said...

The McMahon stable (Dad & Son) do not appear to have had a 2yo maiden winner at Carlisle.

Todays Forum Post
Brian Smart, 2yo mdns, 5f, May, and Musselburgh go very well together. The FTO runners at Scottish tracks aren’t bad either so from purely a stats point of view Excel Bolt 3.10 has reasonable win chance today

Jason said...

That's a good spot (TRD). I thought Electric Waves had a decent chance today but the price was very short. McMahon is a talented trainer and the filly ran her race so you can ask no more than that.

I am a big fan of Brian Smart. The Musselburgh race looked pretty weak. A good performance from Excel Bolt though.

Regards,
Jason

Alan said...

These early two year old maiden races are minefields with so many unexposed horses.

I'd leave them alone.

Jason said...

Hi Alan,

The fields can be full of debutantes but the majority have little chance against proven form horses. There is no doubt that the early season can be a tricky time but there are also very good bets, too. It depends upon what is your area of interest and speciality.I have very little understanding of anything beyond 2yo. It is a full-time job just following them.

Regards,
Jason