Wednesday 27 June 2012

2:20 Yarmouth (28th June) Free Horse racing Tips

A Maiden Stakes over 6f 3y on good to firm ground.

A tricky affair.

The form horses have limited appeal on what has been seen so far. Santo Prince is quite fancied on the betting exchanges and whether this son of Henrythenavigator remains at the forefront of the betting is very much dependent upon the regard in which the debutantes are held. It is fair to say that Bell's two-year-old has been in a couple of decent maidens defeated by Richard Hannon victors in the shape of Jalaa & the potentially high class Toronado. Unless this race is weak, I would have to look to others. However, there would be one exception to this statement: if Santo Prince started favourite. It is unlikely, but if that scenario is played out he will run well.

Of the other horses with experience, Plexolini ran at Bath on debut over 5f. Jo Hughes' youngster wasn't beaten that far but it should be noted that was a very restrictive auction maiden and by all accounts a moderate race. 

Whitford is a breeze-up purchase and trained by Chris Dwyer. He is a fair-looking juvenile but was awkward leaving the stalls, veering to his right, and then showing inexperience before being comprehensively outpaced. Much more is needed today and best watched.

Mrs Christine Dunnett does well at Yarmouth, training in her home county of Norfolk. Marvellous Miss, a daughter of Captain Marvellous, needs something of a transformation after showing little ability at Lingfield.  

The raced juveniles either need to improve considerably or for this to be a poor race. The debutantes make more appeal.

Mark Tompkins is another trainer who often goes well at this venue. Likelikelikelikeit is one of two fillies, a cheap daughter of Avonbridge. The trainer's juveniles are best on their second start and feature poor strike rate on their racecourse bow. 

It is interesting to see Stuart Williams is represented by The Obvious Choice, owned by Qatar Racing Ltd who paid a king's ransom for a string of two-year-old representatives at Royal Ascot. This breeze-up purchase cost 65,000gns. he is half-brother to the talented Auld Burns, who won on debut for Richard Hannon, group-placed at three. Williams features a poor win rate on debut unless his juveniles are strongly fancied in the betting. 

The four debutantes most likely to go well are from leading stables.

Marco Botti fields Echo Of Silence. The betting is probably the best indicator although the stable seem to struggle to send out debutantes winner. They feature fair place claims when priced 10/1 & less but I would take a watching brief.

In a race which is difficult to assess, the winner will most likely come from A Certain Romance, Rocky Ground or Bartack.

Peter Chapple-Hyam is a supreme trainer of debutantes to a point his fancied juveniles have a better win rate than similarly fancied two-year-olds on their second start. This is a very unusual characteristic and proves why he is a force to be reckoned. A Certain Romance cost 40,000gns at the yearling sales and is fancied on the betting exchanges. The stable have sent out a couple of substantially backed debut winners with Maxentius and Agent Allison. Owned by Joseph Barton, connections like a gamble and if substantially backed will go very well. 

Roger Varian is a gifted trainer. His two-year-old debuatntes have been on fire this season and I would fear opposing Rocky Ground unless he is particularly weak in the betting. This son of Acclamation cost  £105,000gns at the yearling sales and purchased by Clipper Logistics who are no strangers to talented juveniles. With three from five of the stables juveniles winning on debut, a second placing beaten in a photo and fast-finishing fourth, it would take a brave person to say this bay colt, an early January foal, will not take some beating. 

Last but not least is Bartack trained by Luca Cumani. This son of Acclamation cost  £78,000 at the yearling sales. Cumani is intriguing and often difficult to assess on debut. However, he has a liking for Yarmouth and a number of his two-year-olds have run huge races here on their racecourse bow. In general, the stable feature fair win and place claims with juveniles priced in single figures. They can win at the first time of asking and if fancied this horse could be a surprise package. 

Conclusion: On paper this looks a difficult race to assess but it could pay to focus on four juveniles. Santo Prince hasn't achieved a great deal in his two starts to date. However, he is the litmus test for this race. If he made favourite it would suggest the opposition is poor and I would give this colt a leading chance. It isn't impossible for this to happen, but I am pretty sure at least one or two of the debutantes will be stronger in the market. Bartack may hold fair win and place claims if fancied in the betting although Cumani is never the easiest to assess on debut. He does have a fondness of Yarmouth which makes me give his two-year-olds a second glance. Few trainers are more capable of winning on debut than Peter Chapple-Hyam & Roger Varian. They have a good line with their juveniles and simply know what is required to win. The betting is key for A Certain Romance. If substantially backed, it will take a good horse to beat him. Similarly Rocky Ground cost a pretty penny and hails from a stable that has an exceptional record with two-year-old debutantes this season. I wouldn't like to choose between these three. Each has strength in its own way. All have fair win and place claims if prices allow.