Wednesday 27 July 2011

1:40 Redcar (27th July) - Result

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f for colts & one filly on good to firm ground.

This looks a tricky affair - a cryptic crossword of a horse race.

In fact, it is a race of beaten favourites.

Perhaps this will be a chance for one to redeem themselves?

Premiere Choice - a relatively expensive yearling at 60,000gns - comes from a family full of winners. The way this son of Exceed And Excel was backed on debut at Ripon, better must have been expected. This grand-looking colt got upset in the stalls and wasn't best away. Worse was to comes as he rolled about the track all at sea. In truth, this juvenile never looked like justifying favouritism at any stage. Jack Hanson is a canny owner and it may be foolish to ignore that initial support, after all many a good juvenile has looked pretty hopeless on debut. It would be encouraging if Premiere Choice was backed today. Easterby has sent some of his best juveniles to start their racing career at Ripon and better should be expected today. It is negative that Easterby has a shocking strike rate at Redcar with his two-year-olds.

The Rising is another mystery. This colt cost 50,000gns. A son of the excellent Cherry Hinton-winning dam Jewel In The Sand. McMahon is one of my favourite trainers and generally consistency personified. However, this son of Pivotal needs to answer his critics today. He was relatively fancied on debut but could never quite get on terms with the leaders but finished with some enthusiasm. Very well backed last time at Windsor, many expected a big run but this bay colt never looked competitive, struggling to go the pace and in reality showed disappointingly little. The intriguing aspect that day was the betting. It suggested he would go close to winning. McMahon opts for the visor today, which shows they were far from impressed by that last run. This 6f should hopefully allow this youngster to find his stride. Over the minimum trip he was simply on the back foot, which is far from ideal. Much more is needed to win this race - but there may be hope. From a statistical point of view, I consider this juvenile has ability. However, to wager you have to take a leap of faith, which at relatively short odds, always gives an uneasy feeling. The trainer has a great strike rate at the course and even with concerns, The Rising could well run a big race.

Probably the most proven horse in the field is Singalat. His run at Leicester was encouraging. He has since stepped up to Listed class when a long way adrift in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. This is more his level. On balance, this gelding has respectable win and place claims although there is a worry he may have been somewhat flattered at Leicester. What strikes me with this juvenile is that he is an out and out galloper and if this is run at a frantic pace he may be outpaced. It will be interesting to see whether Tylicki makes the running because this juvenile looks the type to struggle to reel in front runners.

The last of the beaten favourites is Laffan. A nice looking colt, he struggled to get 6f on debut and others are preferred.

Of the debutantes, Loukas - trained by Alan Swinbank - should be respected. In the last couple of years the stable have done well when their juveniles have been backed on their first start. If priced 7/1 & less has fair win and place claims.

Conclusion: A tricky race. A race of beaten favourites hoping to put their last poor effort behind them. Premiere Choice and The Rising are definitely worth a second chance although you need deep pockets to keep giving horses the benefit of the doubt. From a statistical point of view, both of these juveniles were expected to go very well last time. In truth, both ran so poorly perhaps they simply didn't run their races. The strike race for Easterby's two-year-old runners at Redcar is boarding on horrendous (2 winners from 103 runs). Quite frankly it is off putting. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Premiere Choice run a big race but I would rather take a watching brief today. I would be a little more embracing of the chances of The Rising who has win and place claims. Singalat looks to be the form choice but I would have slight reservations. 

HCE: ''Singalat was always with the leaders and ran well to take his first win. Premiere Choice & The Rising both showed a good deal more today. The former was backed and done little wrong today. The Rising was revived by the visor and may be a better proposition over 5f. Both should win in their two-year-old career. Loukas will improve for this debut.''