Friday, 25 March 2016

1:10 Kempton Racing Tips (26th March) WATCH RACING UK IN HD MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (DIV I) (PLUS 10 RACE)

A Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f on standard going. This race has been split into two division. Originally 19 runners. The most bizarre if not incredible factor of these races is that David Evans has ten two-year-old runners. Quite amazing, and this must be a fair proportion of his entire string. I would imagine he has 30 - 40 two-year-olds. We will focus on this race of which he has five entrants: Bara Brith, Fastnet Spin, Jenji, Little Nosegay & Madam Prancealot. Evans is a very difficult to assess and to be fair does everything in his power to blur the lines between runners to manipulate the odds for the one they think will win. It wouldn't be a surprise to see one or two of his here being non runners. The betting is the best guide to their respective chances. However, yesterday's stakes runner, Davarde, who was substantially backed showed little. It wouldn't be a surprise to see one of his string go well but I will be watching. 

Bill Turner's first two-year-old runner - Who Told Jo Jo - was weak in the betting and finished out of the frame. As I have said before, I would rather take note of his Brocklesby entrant, which is likely to be his best juvenile. Bill's Delight is a home bred daughter of Compton Place out of a poor mare.  

Tom Dascombe's first juvenile runner, Decadent Times, wasn't disgraced at Wolverhampton, showing good pace before fading into third. That colt should give a line to Playful Trickster. This brown filly is a daughter of Intikhab out of a debut-winning mare. A 14,000EUR yearling buy in the ownership of The Roaring Twenties, the same connections of Decadent Times and Secret Lady who finished runner-up at Saint-cloud, France. Dascombe is an interesting trainer whose debutantes can go well especially when priced 7/1 & less. If outside this guide, I would take a watching brief but if fancied has respectable win and place claims.    

The first two-year-old runner of the season for Karl Burke, who is an exceptional trainer. Lavender Sky is a February foal, a daughter of Sir Prancealot out of on an unraced mare. This bay filly is a relatively cheap yearling purchase by Nick Bradley for just 7,000EUR, part of a syndicate including the trainer's wife. The breeding and sale's price don't inspire but the betting is the best guide. Debutantes from Spigot Lodge have decent win and place claims priced 10/1 and less. The betting is the best guide.       

Mark Johnston has started this season as he did last year with the very easy winner Sutter County, who looked a nice physical specimen. This winner will have backers hot on the tail of another talent so Boater is likely to be the focus over this minimum trip. This January foal, a daughter of Helmet, out of an unraced mare, a home bred from Darley. 

Hot N Sassy is a pretty cheap yearling buy at just 4,000EUR. This daughter of Arcano is price at big odds at best watch.

Summary: Boater is likely to be all the rage. If Johnston's two-year-olds follow the same path as last year this filly will go well. On the opposite side of the coin this race has been split into two divisions so you can never quite tell which is the first and second string. In addition with the first juvenile winning so well there is reason to think this filly may be under priced. These pointer are given to appreciate the factors rather than suggest she will not run a big race. It makes no difference to me as I will be watching. Difficult to know what to think about David Evan's multiple runners. It gives the impression one of these will go well. The betting is the best guide but a trainer who is difficult to pin down. Playful Trickster and Lavender Sky have fair each-way claims if fancied in the betting. A watching brief.