Monday, 3 September 2012

3:40 Leicester (4th September) Free horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f 9y on good to firm ground.

Eleven juveniles compete: all colts & geldings bar three fillies, of which four are debutantes.

In general, fillies struggle against the colts but one of the fairer sex may prove a decent bet against this field. Magical Rose was a relatively cheap yearling purchase at 14,5000euros. However, I noticed this daughter of Elusive City on debut at Newbury and was struck by this good-looking bay. She is a stocky type and far from a weak filly which can often be seen on the racecourse. What also caught my attention was her starting price which suggested connections were hopeful of a big run. As it happened, Paul D'Arcy didn't have much luck placing her that day because the first four juveniles are fair sorts and the winner, Maureen, a recent victor of the Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) and unfortunate loser of the Cherry Hinton Stakes (Group 2). In truth, Richard Hannon's filly should be unbeaten and a leading light for next year's 1,000 Guineas. It wasn't a surprise to see Magical Rose flounder that day although there was promise to be gleaned from those first few furlongs. Whether she had a problem that day or a niggle post race Darcy kept her off course for over a month and a half, returning for a 7f maiden at Newmarket. Dropping to auction class was a positive move and there was money for her once more. Running on at the line, she finished a creditable third. The fourth horse, Forceful Flame, has since finished unplaced although showed good pace in what may turn out to be a decent race. Darcy will have this filly primed for a big run today and if prices allow looks to be a cracking each way bet. 

The majority of the field look pretty weak although one horse could pose a problem if as talented as he looks. It's interesting to see Jamie Spencer taking the ride on Brendan Powell's Dark Emerald who ran well in the Coventry Stakes (Group 2). Prior to that effort, this grey colt run well at Goodwood when finishing second at big odds. There must have been a problem for this juvenile to have been absent for such a period. I also have slight reservations whether he has been flattered to some degree. Time will tell. Being a less fashionable stable it is possible Dark Emerald will be weak in the betting. A horse I'd rather watch and learn a little more.

Most of the form horses need to improve a good deal to figure. Daisie Cutter ran on well in a very restricted auction event at Lingfield over 6f. This extra furlong is likely to help but I would question what that placing amounts to in the context of this stiffer task. 

Perfect Pose was bought and owned by Andrew Tinkler, trained by Richard Hannon. This stable should be respected although it is difficult to assess their debutantes who can be rather hit and miss at times. If strongly fancied it would give greater confidence. I would rather take a watching brief.

The betting is the best guide to the chances of Loucal for Noel Quinlan. The stable have a few talents in their yard and if substantially backed it could indicate ability. 

The others are best watched.

Conclusion: This looks a pretty moderate contest and the majority of the field don't inspire. A selection of unfashionable stables or trainers who rarely win with debutantes may leave this a race of the few. Magical Rose is a progressive filly with a good bit of strength about her. For the restricted race of this nature she will not have a better chance to gain that elusive first win. She is a fair-looking filly who is progressive and in good hands with Paul D'Arcy. Connections will be expecting a bold show and I would be more confident with her than others that she will run a race. If prices allow this looks a decent each way bet. The main opposition comes from Dark Emerald. On form you would have to say he has a supreme chance. However, he has been off course a while and I just wander if this grey has been flattered to some extent. If he is as good as the form suggests it will be a straightforward win. Being from a smaller trainer - who isn't renowned for two-year-old winners - the odds may well be respectable and this youngster could even be something of a drifter in the market. One of few to fear but worth taking on with an each way selection. If Loucal and Perfect prose are substantially backed they could go well. The others are best watched.


3:05 Leicester:

Few interesting horses in this maiden. Gilded Frame was fancied last time but disappointed and there is money for Tregoning's youngster. Clear Loch comes from a stable who can go well on their second start. If strongly fancied in the betting should be thereabout. Night Watch is worth noting in the betting. William Jarvis' two-year-old was heavily supported on debut at Folkestone but had little hope when the bit slipped through his mouth. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the money come for this horse and he could be a fair bet especially if going off one of the favourites.