Wednesday, 5 September 2012

3:15 Salisbury (6th September) Free Horse Racing Tips

The Country Gentleman's Association EBF Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) over 6f on good ground.

A fantastic renewal of this class 1 race. Thirteen juveniles take part, eleven winners and one debutant. With win prize money of £17,580 this purse has attracted a number of talented fillies and a large field by normal standards.

It will be no easy task finding the winner of this race and from a purist's perspective a watching race for me. 

For starters, Mists Of Time will need to be equal to Pegasus to win this race on debut. Threes Grand, Dream Maker & Supernova Heights look to have a difficult task and best watched.

It is intriguing to see *Tassel makes her return here after a three month absence. Richard Hannon has always held this bay filly in high regard. After winning her maiden early in the season her career has been a disappointment. Pulling up lame when a big odds-on shot at this course over 5f, she then took her chance at Royal Ascot finishing last in the Albany Stakes (Group 3). On balance, this daughter of Khllachy has much to prove. The only glimmer of hope is that Highclere Thoroughbreds actually takes their chance here. That in itself suggests she has been showing some class on the gallops. However, I would have to take a watching brief because there are too many unanswered questions to feel confident. Unless you are privy to inside information about her well being you are shooting in the dark.

Hannon fields another filly who is on something of a recovery mission after a superb debut win. The sky looked the limit for Rayaheen after a tidy win at Nottingham. This exceptionally well bred daughter of Classic winner Natagora was made favourite to win a Listed race at Sandown over 7f but finished tailed off. Hamdan Al Maktoum must have plenty of juveniles who could take their chance so connections may feel that was a blip rather than a conclusion to what looked a talent. 

Graphic Guest has been placed well by Mick Channon winning in two small fields but struggled when stepping up in class behind Ceiling Kitty in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). To be fair, she was fancied in the  betting and with being off course for a period of time there may have been a valid reason for that disappointment. Worth noting if substantially backed but something to prove.

There a few fillies stepping up in class after winning on their last start. Malilla is a progressive type and Clive Cox is a dab hand at placing his juveniles. However, the form of her last two races suggests better is needed today. 

Tantshi is another youngster who needs to progress after a winning debut. This daughter of Invincible Spirit was inexperienced at Newbury and needed some coaxing and every last inch of that finish to prevail. She just outpointed the more experienced Supernova Heights but looks the sort to improve a good deal for that racecourse bow. There is little doubt Roger Varian's two-year-old needs to have improved substantially. The stable have a talented crop of juveniles so it speaks well that they have elected to race at this level on her second start. Varian is a trainer I hold in the highest regard and while I feel others make more appeal I wouldn't be surprised to see a different horse. A Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) entry indicates they have further ambitions.

Winning Express was all the rage on debut at Sandown, backed down from fancy odds to shade favouritism from New Fforest who looked a near certainty to be at the top of the tree. Ed McMahon is a fantastic trainer and the word was clearly out that day. I am pretty sure - barring incident - they new this bargain buy was a winner waiting to happen. She finished that race with zeal, giving the impression a step up in distance would be ideal. The form of that race has been franked with the third and fourth winning on their next start. However, this this daughter of Camacho didn't need highlighting as a potential talent. While improvement will be needed to prove victorious here there was much to like about that effort and she has the profile of a filly who could be going places.

On proven form James Given's Jadanna must be respected as this is a drop in class when compared to fine performances in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2), Cherry Hinton Stakes (Group 2) & perhaps a below par run when competing at Goodwood in the Molecombe Stakes (Group 3). Everything happened too quickly that day and I'm sure connections must have realised that the minimum trip was a stride too fast. It was either that or she is regressing. On paper this looks a supreme chance to get back to winning ways but I would  have reservations that after a few hard races - at top level - she has been slightly soured. Time will tell. However, she will be priced on those earlier bold showings at Group class which may be a touch too short after last time.

Alan Jarvis has been quoted as saying he has a talented string of two-year-olds this season and there is a fair chance Diaminda is pretty high in the pecking order. This daughter of Diamond Green is a strapping filly who will put many of these in the shade. I was impressed with the way she finished at Ascot and with time off course looks the type to progress. The form of that second start has taken a knock and at the odds I would rather take a watching brief.

El Manati couldn't have won more easily at Leicester. Race comments gave her an ''easily'' tag although if she had been trained by Sir Michael Stoute it would probably have been ''impressive''. By all accounts it was a sparkling display of class. However, you have to take that performance in the context of the race. It was a pretty average race and many a horse could have won by a number of lengths. But how easily did she win? And how does that form compare to others? James Tate holds this daughter of Iffraaj in very high esteem and you couldn't help but consider that win with hopes of what might be. I wouldn't take a short price for her to win this competitive heat. But I would certainly marvel at the thought of seeing how she fares against these talented juveniles.

Conclusion: I always find competitive races difficult to call. How do you measure the talent, potential or class of a winner? Sure there are form lines, times, the sparkle of an effortless win but comparing is never as straightforward as it seems. In fact, it can prove an difficult task. In truth most of the field have something to prove. Either talents needing to show their last runs were all wrong or winners proving they are not just stakes level but class acts. Jadanna has achieved most but may be on the decline after a few tough races. Perhaps this 6f will be the key? Winning Express gives me the feel of a talented juvenile. McMahon knows his horses and if strongly fancied in the betting will go well. El Manati could be a class act and really adds to this event. However, I would be cautious backing at short odds because that was a pretty ordinary race. A tricky race to call - but a great race to watch.