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Monday, 17 September 2012

2:30 Yarmouth (18th September) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f 3y on good to firm ground. William Haggis does well at Yarmouth and the day's racing will be all the sweeter if this well bred filly prevails. In truth, Sky Garden, a daughter of Acclamation, out of Superstar Leo [a Group-class  performer who had an official rating of 120] was unlucky not to have won at Haydock, when drifting in the closing stages saw her caught on the line. Clearly, this home bred of Lael Stable has a long way to go to attain a glimmer of her mother's ability but she has been fancied on both starts to date, which suggests connection fancy she is a winner waiting to happen. This bay filly is a progressive juvenile who could well improve for those first two starts. It is difficult to assess the form of that most recent effort with a couple of debutantes hitting the frame. Experience will be a positive although whether there is much value at relatively short odds is a matter for debate. 

In ways Supernova Heights has proven to be a frustrating horse. Brian Meehan's representative has shown ability and went close to winning when overhauled by Tantshi at Newbury. She struggled to last the distance when racing over 7f at Goodwood and then comprehensively outpaced when tested at Listed class when dropping back in trip at Salisbury. This daughter of Oasis Dream has been kept busy. She looks the type to win an average race but seems to find one too good. 

Roger Varian is an absolute genius at training two-year-olds and Hekaayaat, a home bred daughter of Mr Greeley, catches the eye racing in the Hamdam Al Maktoum silks with Hanagan in the saddle. The mare was a talented filly trained by John Dunlop. The betting is probably the best indicator for this chestnut filly and if priced in single figures could well prove a tough nut to crack. It is worth noting that this youngster was entered for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2), which is a significant pointer. It is never easy to give away experience but a horse to respect.

Another trainer to respect with juveniles making their race course bow is Peter Chapple-Hyam. He is one of very few trainers who feature a strike rate on debut which is pretty much on a par with those racing on their second start. Take it from me, that is an amazing statistic. The betting of Ilsa Lund will be the best guide to this daughter of Holy Roman Emperor. It is a slight negative that this filly was a relatively cheap purchase. If priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims.

In a similar fashion, Sir Michael Stoute's filly - Primadonna Girl - would have sound each way claims if priced 13/2 & less. However, breeding suggests a greater test of stamina is needed. The betting is key to this daughter of King's Best.

The others are best watched unless substantially supported.

Conclusion: In some respects the form horses have something to prove but with a couple going close it is reasonable to consider they will take the beating.  Sky Garden has taken time to learn what racing is about but she will be more professional today. I wouldn't want to jump in at short odds but if there is a little meat on the bone looks the horse to beat. Supernova Heights is a difficult filly to get a handle but she will be fit and ready for action. A fair each way prospect although I would tread careful if going for a straight win. Hekaayaat is worth noting in the betting. Few trainers capture my attention more than Roger Varian because his strike rate with debutantes is second to none. However, it will be no easy task racing against more experience opposition and any signs of greenness may be costly. If substantially backed it would be a positive. The betting of Isla Lind and Primadonna Girl will tell their story. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a big run.