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Wednesday, 8 August 2012

5:40 Sandown (9th August) Free Horse racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f 6y on good ground.

Nine runners, three raced. An interesting race.

New Fforest comes here with a couple of fair efforts under her belt. This bay filly, a daughter of Oasis Dream, is out of the talented mare Ffestiniog who won at Listed grade, competed at Group level, but in truth was a talented handicapper. Elite Racing Club bred this youngster who is held in some regard by Andrew Balding. A Lowther Stake (Group 2) entry illustrates those thoughts as did running her at Stakes class at Bath. The stable have a good record at that course and there is little doubt they fancied their chances that day. By all accounts it was a great run and this will be a much easier task. Expected to go well.

Richard Hannon is in flying form of late and this week Hughes has been chalking-up winners for fun. Take The Lead did just that last time at Windsor over 6f and travelled well until tiring in the closing stages. The form of that race has been franked and this daughter of Assertive has very good pace so a drop to the minimum trip may help. It is always interesting to consider if a horse will display the same pace over a lesser distance as there is a marked difference between these trips, which is often ignored. A juvenile to respect if not a little difficult to assess at this time. I would be tempted to take a watching brief.

The other form horse, Katy Spirit, ran better on her second effort at Ffos Las but needs to improve and faces a stiff task.

Of the debutantes, Melbourne Memories hails from an the in-form stable of Clive Cox. It is a slight negative that this youngster is a home bred as they can be a little slower to come to hand from this stable. However, this is one of few yards where debutantes can win at fancy odds, so always worthy of respect. The betting could still be a significant factor for this daughter of Sleeping Indian, who was sent through the sales. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a bold show. 

Winning Express is trained by Ed McMahon. This grey filly cost £16,000 at the breeze-up sales. Ryan Moore is an unusual jockey booking and the stable have a good win rate at this course but a horse I would rather watch than bet.

Kevin Ryan is a trainer to respect although his two-year-olds can be a indifferent on debut. The majority of the stable's first time out winners are priced 7/1 & less, which is good marker for the chances of Chasing Dreams. On breeding, a stiffer test of stamina may be needed. 

Chorister Choir, Elusive Gold & Royal Betty are best watched unless substantially supported.

Conclusion: Experience can count for a lot at this course, where a slow start can finish a horse's hope in a stride. The betting is the best guide to the debutantes although I would rather consider those with race form. New Fforest is held in some regard by connections and clearly a maiden is thought a basic stepping stone to more loftier goals. Although the heights of the Lowther Stakes (Group 2) looks ambitious a run-of-the-mill maiden is not. Elite Racing Club had great success with the mare and I expect this bay filly to win.