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Monday, 13 August 2012

5:05 Yarmouth (14th August) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 6f 3y on good to firm ground.

Six juveniles fielded for this restricted auction race with two debutantes. For the grade there are a couple of fair juveniles and potentially this could be a match. 

Oscar's Journey ran here on debut but needed the experience, struggling to keep tabs on a couple of fair sorts over the minimum trip although far from disgraced. This chestnut gelding - a son of Dubai Destination - ran a fine race at Newmarket when stepping up to 6f. In truth, the winner had plenty in hand and may not be the best guide to judge although Jenkin's youngster could be upgraded a fraction after being quite keen in the early stages which may have scuppered his finish. This is a drop in class. I can imagine the stable will have this youngster primed today so expect a big run. Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking and particularly significant. Not the easiest of races to assess but a horse who will go close.

Alan Jarvis has spoken in glowing terms of his two-year-old string this season and Prince Regal, although no world beater, may be better than we have seen so far. This chestnut colt was fancied to go well on his first two starts at relatively short odds. There was a lot to like about this son of Cockney Rebel at Goodwood. For Jarvis to enter this juvenile for such a meeting illustrates he was no forlorn hope even at speculative odds of 50/1. The key to this runner could well be the faster ground. He showed good pace when only tiring in the closing stages behind Blessington, who is held in some regard by Gosden. The weight advantage afforded by apprentice Murphy puts this juvenile on a handy mark. It will be interesting to see what tactics are employed. If Prince Regal coasts in the early stages, he will be a difficult horse to beat with an abundance of natural pace. 

Strong Conviction is a fair juvenile who is better suited to 6f than the minimum trip, which has seen him outpaced on previous occasions. After so many chances you have to take care he is not regressing. I would rather take a watching brief because he is likely to disappoint sooner rather than later.

The betting is the best guide to the chances of Speedfit Boy and Ostralegus. If backed it would bring more confidence against juveniles with experience who are likely to be seen at their best.

Conclusion: A funny little race. Both Oscar's Journey and Prince Regal have shown ability but still leave a little to the imagination. The latter trained by Alan Jarvis has been strongly fancied and then put in a bold show for a big-money maiden at Goodwood. He is a speedy juvenile who has pace to burn. Tactics could play their part. This youngster could take some beating if allowed to dictate the pace. It will be interesting to see if Murphy is instructed to blast clear and hope they hold on at the line. The fast ground is a plus for this colt who I would favoured over Oscar's Journey. John Jenkin's two-year-old has enough ability to win a race and the booking of Moore suggests they are very hopeful of victory. This gelding has shown ability on both starts and if learning to settle could be a force to be reckoned. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a close finish between this pair. I would probably take a watching brief but if betting on Prince Regal I would be tempted to lay at short odds in-running because he may have these on the back foot if blasting from the stalls.

An intriguing race for the seaside crowd.

I will add a few HCE Mentions:

2:30 Bath - Alcando

Dennis Coakley is a canny old stick and he does particularly well at Bath. If this juvenile was a speculative price I would be betting. However, at shorter odds it tempers enthusiasm. Still could go well and may be heavily backed.     

3:30 Bath 

Mixed Message is quite a short price for this but I wonder if this 5f will be too quick for McMahon's youngster. Not sure if I would be so brave to lay this runner but this bay filly may struggle to go the early pace if this is run at a frantic pace.